Ag Market View for Nov 8th
Soybean futures ended lower and below 12.00. Talk of higher US and Brazil supply, lack of new announcement of new US soybean sales to China and favorable South America weather and crop conditions weighed on prices. Weekly US soybean exports were near 97 mil bu vs 105 last year. Season to date exports are near 508 mil vs 735 ly. Exports running 227 behind USDA goal of a drop of 175 from last year. Trade estimates US soybean crop at 4,484 mil bu or up 36 mil bu from USDA October guess. This week, one private crop group raised their crop guess 50 mil bu. Trade also estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 362 mil bu vs USDA 320. Some are now over 500 mil bu due to estimates of lower US soybean exports. Trade est US soybean harvest near 89 pct vs 79 last week.
Corn futures ended slightly lower. CZ is near 5.51. Range was 5.49- 5.54. Key now is tomorrows USDA report. Trade estimates US corn crop at 15,050 mil bu or up 31 mil bu from USDA October guess. This week, one private crop group raised their crop guess 180 mil bu. Trade also estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,480 mil bu vs USDA 1,500. Some are closer to 1,300 mil bu due to higher demand. Weekly US exports were near 22 mil bu vs 27 ly. Season to date exports are 237 vs 299 last year. Trade estimates that 85 pct of US corn crop is planted versus 74 last week. There has been some talk that US farmers increase cash sales as harvest progressed. Still, positive Ethanol margins offers support to cash basis and futures. Brazil corn crop 28 pct planted with the crop rated 82 pct G/E. Dalian corn futures is near the 5 month highs. EU corn prices traded lower despite talk of lower imports and lower stocks. Some feel nearby corn futures may be in a 5.40-5.90 range. End users should be net buyers near the lows. Farmers should be net sellers near the highs.
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ ended near 7.68. Range 7.62-7.73. KWZ ended near 7.80. Range 7.74-7.85. MWZ ended near 10.08. Range 10.05-10.14. OZ ended sharply lower. Talk of tight global exporters supplies and higher Russia wheat prices and lower Russia and Europe exports is supportive. Trade est US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 581 mil bu vs USDA 580. Some are closer to 620 mil bu due to lower exports. Trade estimates World wheat end stocks near 276.5 mmt vs 277.2 in October and 288.3 last year. Weekly US wheat exports were near 8 mil bu vs 11 last year. Season to date exports are near 363 mil vs 430 last year. Some feel KWZ has found support near 7.70 and MWZ near 10.00.Brazil will decide this week if the will imports Argentina GMO wheat. Australia futures traded higher on wet weather possibly lowering quality. Matif wheat futures continues to trended higher on talk of lower EU and Russia supplies. Talk of higher Russia exports prices could reduce their exports.
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