Ag Market View for Nov 4th


Soybeans futures traded sharply lower. SF ended near 12.22 after there were no new daily US soybean sales sold to China and talk of increase Brazil supply could lower US soybean exports and raise US carryout. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 68 mil bu with China buying 68 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,187 mil vs 1,779 last year. Commit is 592 mil bu behind last year. USDA est exports down only 175 mil bu from last year. Trade estimates US soybean crop at 4,484 mil bu or up 36 mil bu from USDA October guess. This week, one private crop group raised their crop guess 50 mil bu. Trade also estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 362 mil bu vs USDA 320. Some are now over 500 mil bu. Brazil and Argentina weather is mostly favorable for crops. This week, farmer consultants suggest farmers increase their 2021 and 2022 soybean cash sales.


Corn futures ended lower. CZ ended near 5.59. On Oct 27, CZ traded above 5.60 for the first time since August. For most of the summer, CZ range has been 5.20 to 5.60. Large US crop and slow export demand offered resistance. Talk of lower west Midwest corn yields and higher ethanol margins helped rally prices to near resistance. Funds added to net longs over 5.60 on talk that that higher cost of planting the 2022 crop could lower acres. CZ may now need to go back into the previous range until more is known about the US crop size and final demand. Weekly US corn export sales were near 48 mil bu with Mexico buying 26 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,221 mil vs 1,302 last year. Commit is 86 mil bu behind last year. USDA est exports down 253 mil bu from last year. Trade estimates US corn crop at 15,050 mil bu or up 361mil bu from USDA October guess. This week, one private crop group raised their crop guess 180 mil bu. Trade also estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,480 mil bu vs USDA 1,500. Some are closer to 1,300 mil bu due to higher demand. This week farmer consultants suggest farmers increase 2021 and 2022 crop sales. USDA est World corn traded near 202 mmt vs 178 ly. Largest buyers are China, Mexico, Japan, EU, north Africa, SE Asia. Lower Canada feed crops could also increase their import needs. US is largest exporter at 64 mmt, followed by Brazil 43, Argentina 38 and Ukraine 32.


Wheat futures ended lower. WZ ended near 7.73. Range was 7.72 to 7.94. KWZ ended near 7.86. Range was 7.82-8.04. MWZ ended near 10.17. Range was 10.16 to 10.60. Wheat futures started higher on talk of higher Russia export tax which could increase their export prices. Fact that domestic Russia prices are higher than export could limit cash farmer sales to the export market. Slow Weekly US wheat sales and higher dollar lower corn and soybean chart action selling offered resistance to wheat futures. This week, Minn spring wheat has dropped on talk the basis was dropping as fast as futures were rallying suggest trade to 10.80 was more spec related than cash. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 14 mil bu. Total commit is near 478 mil versus 615 last year. Commit is 137 mil bu behind last year. USDA est exports down 117 mil bu from last year. Trade est US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 581 mil bu vs USDA 580. Some are closer to 620 mil bu due to lower demand. This week farmer consultants suggest farmers increase 2021, 2022, 2023 crop sales.

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