Ag Market View for Nov 3.22
SF ended lower and near 14.37. SMZ is near 414.3. BOZ is near 75.25. Midterm election Nov 8. USDA report Nov 9. Soybeans and soymeal may be seeing some long liquidation after weekly US soybean export sales were below last week, private crop watcher raised US 2022 soybean crop est and higher US Dollar and lower commodity trade. Weekly US soybean export sales were 30 mil bu. Total commit is 1,186 mil bu vs 1,176 ly. Informa raised their est of US 2022 soybean crop 47 mil bu to 4,360. USDA is 4,313. Informa left Brazil soybean crop at 151 mmt and Argentina 50 mmt. SF Support 14.00. Resistance 14.50. Argentina is dry. Brazil is dry. Brazil soybeans entering vegetation stage while Argentina is still planning soybeans. 2 week Brazil and Argentina forecast is calling for rain. Dalian vegoil prices were higher with palmoil up 10 pct this week and 27 pct since Oct 1. US renewable fuel capacity has double from last year and similar increase in under construction
Corn futures may be seeing some long liquidation after weekly US corn export sales were low, private crop watcher raised US 2022 corn crop est and higher US Dollar and lower commodity trade. Weekly US corn export sales were 14 mil bu. Total commit is 570 mil bu vs 1,220 ly. Informa raised their est of US 2022 corn crop 88 mil bu to 13,981. USDA is 13,895.. Informa left Brazil corn crop at 127 mmt and Argentina 53 mmt. CZ range 6.50-7.00. Matif corn spiked higher closed just off last week’s 5-month high. Positions beyond January closed slightly lower. There were some reports suggesting that China had bought 500 mt-1.0 mmt of Brazilian corn for December and January and 500 mt for Mar-April. Early sales may be sourced from existing stocks. Some est that Brazil may have a record 50 mmt of corn as of Oct 1. CZ ended near session low and below to 50 DMA near 6.80.Open interest continues to increase. Daily trade volume has come down due to extreme market volatility .It may not get any better any time soon with market concern about lower Ukraine and South America Corn prices reducing US corn export demand. US Fed plan to continue to raise rates continued to rally the US Dollar and weigh on commodity Prices.
Wheat futures ended mixed. Weekly US wheat export sales were low and higher US Dollar and lower commodity trade may have offered early resistance. Weekly US wheat export sales were 12 mil bu. Total commit is 447 mil bu vs 477 ly. Informa lowered Argentina wheat crop 2.5 mmt to 14.0. They lowered Canada .7 mt to 34.3. WZ range 7.50 to 9.00. It was another day of conflicting news/comments,. Matif wheat traded in a narrow range of around before closing lower. Putin’s U-turn was not a proxy for an extension of the corridor, and both Russia and Ukraine stated clearly today that neither had made any commitments to the corridor beyond the existing deal which ends Nov 19th. Turkey and Russia are reportedly working to determine the list of countries that need Russian grain and fertilizers. Cash markets were totally inexistant both in the EU and Black Sea with operators executing existing positions and taking on no new risks.
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