Ag Market View for Nov 26th


Soybean ended lower. SF was near 12.51. Range was 12.40-12.55. Talk of lower demand for US soybean and soymeal offered resistance to prices before todays Covid selloff. USDA ERS lowered their estimate of US soybean export value 12 pct from their August guess. This would equal 100 mil bu. This could raise US carryout to 440. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 57 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,329 mil bu vs 1,920 last year. USDA estimate US soybean exports near 2,050 vs 2,265 last year. Some feel Brazil can offer World buyers Jan soybean cheaper than US. China total import buying to date is below USDA est of 100 mmt. Some fear final US export could be closer to 1,950 than USDA 2,050. Key could be USDA est of US 2021 soybean crop on Jan 12. Some feel the crop could drop 1-2 bpa or 80-160 mil bu.


Corn futures traded higher and ended the day near session highs. Overreaction to news of a new variant Covid strain in South Africa gave both end users and professional Traders a chance to buy corn futures. CZ ended near 5.86. Range was 5.66-5.88. Sharply lower US stocks, US Dollar and Crude oil triggered large increase in selling on the delayed opening. US cash corn basis remains strong due to increase demand for ethanol. This week, US ethanol production was up 7 pct from last year. Margins remain positive. Some feel USDA could increase US ethanol corn demand 100-150 mil bu on their newt Supply and Demand report. Weekly US corn export sales were near 56 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,354 mil bu vs 1,507 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year.  Key to final carryout could be final US 2021 crop. A lower crop could suggest a carryout closer to 1,290 vs USDA 1,493. Managed funds have added to their net long in corn on talk of lower US 2022 supply and a carryout that could be closer to 1,450 than USDA 1,939. That would suggest a record US 2022 Corn yield. This would leave little room for a weather problem. Matif corn continue to make new highs on drop in EU stocks. China continues to be an aggressive buyers of EU feed wheat and Ukraine corn.  CZ traded lower and tested 20 moving average support before rebounding on the close and closed near Wednesdays high.


Like most commodities wheat futures opened sharply lower on the news there was a new Covid variant strain in South Africa. EU put travel restraints on anyone coming from 5 African countries. Belgium reports a case of the new variant. Unlike many commodities wheat managed to rebound off session lows. There remain concern that World buyers are short and need to buy 2022 needs. There is also concern that EU supplies are declining, rains in Australia is lowering the quality of their crop and higher Russia export tax could limit their exports in 2022. Dryness across US south plains could continue into spring. This weeks USDA weekly Winter wheat crop rating dropped especially in KS and the PNW. Weekly US Wheat export sales were near 21 mil bu. Total commit is near 523 vs 679 ly. Some feel Wheat prices could trend higher in 2022 due to tight exporter supplies and less than normal US 2022 weather. WZ ended near 8.30. Range 8.10-8.30. KWZ ended near 8.70. Range 8.45-8.70. MWZ ended near 10.39. Range 10-12-10.43.

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