Ag Market View for Nov 1st
SF ended lower and near 12.48. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to China. Weekly US soybean exports were near 83 mil bu vs a revised 94 last week and 88 last year. Season to date exports are near 399 versus 631 last year. 77 pct pf the US 2021 soybean crop is expected to be harvested vs 80 average. Some feel USDA could add 25 mil bu to the crop on Nov 9. Still most in the market feel USDA should also raise crush 10, but lower exports 70. This would suggest a carryout closer to 405 vs USDA 320. Trade estimates China 2021/22 soybean imports near 102 mmt vs 98 ly. US 29 vs 35, Brazil 65 vs 56. Some look for China 2022/23 imports at 104 with US 30, Brazil 66 and Argentina 5. This suggest key to US demand could be South America weather and crop sizes. USDA Sep soybean crush is est near 163 mil bu vs 168 in August and 171 last year.
Corn futures ended higher on increase fund buying. Managed funds were net buyers of 11,000 contracts. CZ tested 5.80 for the first time since Aug 12. CZ has had a straight up trade since the Oct 13 low near 5.06. Futures may be overbought. Some of the rally is linked to higher fertilizer cost lowering US and World 2022 corn acres and possibly final yield. 75 pct pf the US 2021 corn crop is expected to be harvested vs 66 average. Some feel USDA could add 50 mil bu to the crop on Nov 9. Still most in the market feel USDA should also raise feed/residual 50, ethanol 150 and exports 100. This would suggest a carryout closer to 1,250 vs USDA 1,500. Weekly US exports were 24 mil bu versus 29 last year. Season to date exports are 213 mil bu vs 272 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year. Trade estimates China 2021/22 corn imports near 27 mmt vs 30 ly. US 14 vs 21, Ukraine 11 vs 9. Some look for China 2022/23 imports at 27 with US 5, Ukraine 18 and Brazil 8. This suggest key to US export demand could be South America weather and crop sizes. The oat futures market continues to make new highs on concern demand could be higher than supply.
Wheat futures traded sharply higher. Global free wheat supplies is tight. World wheat exporters stocks to use ratio are record low. EU and Russia exports should slow. Russia domestic prices are higher than exports which suggest farmers should sell domestically versus export. This is almost the beginning of a quota on exports. US south plains is dry. WZ tested 8.00 with a range of 7.68 to 8.00. KWZ tested 8.09 with a range of 7.79-8.09, MWZ 10.81. with a range of 10.55 to 10.81. USDA could raise US 2021/22 wheat carryout on Nov 9 due to lower exports. Weekly US wheat exports were only 4 mil bu vs 11 last year. Season to date exports are near 354 vs 419 last year. USDA goal including flour is 875 vs 992 Last year. Some feel combination of higher global wheat demand, lower Exporters supplies and unknown US and Russia 2022 weather could support prices. Futures are overbought and overdue for a correction. USDA could lower Canada wheat supplies in Nov 9. Currently USDA est World wheat end stocks at 277 mmt with China 141 and India 28.
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