Ag Market View for Nov 19th

SOYBEANS

Soybeans and soyoil ended lower. N/C Brazil continues to see normal rains. S Brazil could see some net drying. Forecast have added some rains to parts of Argentina. Long range weather maps hint of drier Argentina weather in December. Soybeans futures may trade mostly sideways. Soymeal continues to gain on soyoil. Bears feel soybean prices are overbought without China buying large amounts of US soybeans. They are using a US soybean carryout closer to 500 vs USDA 340. Bulls look for new buying if Argentina weather turns drier. US soybean export commit is near 34.6 mmt vs 51.1 last year. USDA goal is 55.8 mmt vs 61.7 last year. USDA est Brazil soybean crop at 144 mmt vs 138 ly. They also estimate Brazil soybean exports near 94 mmt vs 81 last year. USDA estimates US soybean crush near 59.6 mmt vs 58.2 ly.

CORN

Corn futures ended lower. Choppy trade linked in part to Managed funds adding to their grains longs as a hedge against inflation versus favorable South America weather and slow pace of US exports and export sales. Fact EPA may announce biofuel mandates this week may have triggered selling from weekly highs. Fact that both China and US might release strategic Crude oil reserves is weighing on energy futures which may have offered resistance to corn futures. Increase EU, China and US covid cases is also weighing on energy, equity market and food demand. Corn end user are short and need to finish buying 2021 needs. They have little 2022 coverage. Bulls look for lower carryout as supportive. Bears feel slow export sales and Increase supplies in Argentina and Ukraine could offer resistance. USDA estimates US corn exports near 63.5 mmt vs 69.9 last year. Brazil corn exports are est near 43 mmt vs 17 ly. Argentina exports are est at 39 vs 38 ly. Ukraine corn exports are est at 31 mmt vs 23 ly. Some could see Ukraine exports closer to 35 mmt. USDA est World corn feed use at 747 mmt vs 724 ly. China 214, US 143 and major importers 165 mmt vs 163 ly.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ so far this month is up 50 cents, KWZ is up 52 cents and MWZ is down 17 cents. Wheat futures had been trending higher on lower Canada and US spring wheat supplies, record low World exporters stocks to use ratio and higher Russia prices. Wheat futures saw some selling on talk Canada wheat exports could be slowed due to washout of rail service to Vancouver. This raised concern over increase exports to US. Australia wet harvest and lower Canada crop supports prices. Jan Russia export tax is near $100. Either World wheat prices will need to rally to slow demand or higher Russia wheat prices could increase. USDA est World wheat exports near 203 mmt vs 199 in October and 201 ly. US exports 23 mmt vs 27 ly, Russia 36 vs 38 ly, EU 36 vs 29, Canada 15 vs 26 ly and Australia 23 vs 24 ly. Matif wheat futures made new all time highs on talk of lower export and higher Russia prices. Australia futures rallied this week due to a wet harvest.

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