Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Nov 28.23
November 28, 2023
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. Talk of slower global demand for commodities, lower soyoil prices and higher interest rates weighed on futures. Spreading bird flu globally could reduce feed and protein use. Weekly US soybean export sales were largest for this week ever and 3rd largest on record at 111 mil bu. Total commit is at 1,322 mil bu vs 1,269 ly. USDA goal is 2,045 vs 2,157. Brazil export prices are cheaper than US Jan forward. Rumors of SA soyoil coming to US offered resistance to soyoil futures and soybeans. USDA est World soybean trade at 169.1 mmt vs 153.9 ly. Brazil 89.5 vs 79.3 ly. US 55.6 vs 58.7 ly. China imports are est at 98.0 mmt vs 91.0 ly. Some feel their buying pace is closer to last year. USDA est World soymeal trade at 69.9 mmt vs 68.2 ly. Argentina is largest exports at 27.6 followed by Brazil at 19.5.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Strong US domestic feeder and crush basis offered support. Fact Ukraine export corridor has been extended 120 days is negative futures. Weekly US corn export sales were larger than expected at 46 mil bu. Mexico was main buyer. Total commit is at 625 mil bu vs 1,298 ly. USDA goal is 2,150 vs 2,471. Brazil and Ukraine export prices are cheaper than US. CH had an outside day and closed above Wednesday high. This was on reduced volume. Open interest is declining as volume is liquidated from the December contract. International Grain Council left World 2022/23 corn crop at 1,166 mmt. USDA est World corn trades near 182.7 mmt vs 201.8 ly. Much of the drop is less China. Brazil is 47.0, Argentina 41.0 and US 54.6. US is down from 69.7 ly. Ukraine is 15.5 versus 27.0 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. The Ukraine corridor was confirmed for another 120 days with no changes. This should allow Ukraine to export up to 14 mmt vs USDA 11. Russian exports can also be raised, maybe as high as 45 mmt vs USDA 42, as the deal appears to address their concerns regarding bank sanctions. Still Matif closed higher. EU farmers may be done selling. There is a big vessel line-up and China bought more French wheat. There were fresh reports of Russian wheat trading to both Brazil and Mexico. International Grain Council lowered World 2022/23 wheat crop 1 mmt to 791. Drop in Argentina is partially offset by increases in Turkey and Australia. Weekly US wheat export sales were 10 mil bu. Total commit is at 469 mil bu vs 502 ly. USDA goal is 775 vs 800. Russia export prices are cheaper than both EU and US. USDA est Would wheat trade at 208.6 mmt vs 202.8 ly. Russia is 42.0, Canada 26.0, Australia 26.0, US 21.1 and Argentina 10.0. Ukraine is 11.0 vs 18.8 ly.
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