Ag Market View for Nov 15th


Soybean ended higher. USDA announced 264 mt US soybean to unknown. Chart based buying helped trigger buy stops over 12.50 SF and 366 SMZ. World Oct-Sep soybean and soymeal trade ended near 166.6 mmt SBME vs USDA forecast of 175.5. Sep trade was only 10.6 mmt vs 13.9 last year. US Sep soybean exports were only 2.6 mmt vs 7.7 last year. Weekly US soybean exports were near 76 mil bu vs 107 last week and 93 ly. Season to date exports are 595 mil vs 828 ly. Some est US soybean exports near 2,000 mil bu vs USDA 2,050 and carryout closer to 390 vs 340. US soybean harvest is est near 92 pct. US NOPA soybean crush was 184 vs 185 ly. This suggest Census crush at 195 vs 197. Soyoil stocks 1,835 mil lbs vs 1,699 ly. This suggest Census stocks near 2,310 vs 1,968 ly and highest since 2012. Sep soyoil yield 11.89 vs 11.67 ly and meal 46.62 vs 46.95 ly.


Corn futures are stuck near 5.74. US domestic ethanol margins are near season highs. Processors are aggressive buyers to meet grind needs. Trade estimates US corn harvest near 91 pct done. Seasonal drop in farmer selling could support cash and spreads. May take a South America weather problem to push corn futures higher. Corn open interest has jumped 200,000 contracts since the lows. Early buying linked to positive USDA World numbers. Some recent buying linked to talk of lower US 2022 corn acres due to high cost of planting. Some est US 2022 corn acres near 92.0 vs 93.3 this past year. Some feel CZ may be in a 5.20-6.00 range until more is known about South America weather and crop size. Any South America weather problem and CH22 could trade up to 6.25-6.75. Weekly US corn exports were 33 mil bu vs 34 last year. Season to date exports are 274 mil bu vs 333 last year. Some look for US exports to be near 2,600 vs USDA 2,500. This and higher ethanol use could drop US carryout to 1,250 vs USDA 1,493.CZ is up against 5.80 resistance with Managed funds net long 336,000 contracts. End users should be net buyers on breaks. Good South America weather and slow US corn export trade could limit the upside. USDA announced 198.2 mt of US corn sold to Mexico. 50 mt was for 2022/23. Wonder what their weather man sees for US 2022 summer weather?


Wheat futures were mixed. Higher global prices are offering support to Chicago and KC wheat. World is watching ant new developments in Russia. If Russia moves export tax and prices higher then, US could get some export demand. US supplies are already tight but some feel US exports prices may become more competitive after Jan 1. Higher Russia prices and lower EU exports could send KWH closer to 8.75-9.00. Weekly US exports were only 14 mil bu vs 12 last year. Season to date exports are 378 mil bu vs 442 last year. Analyst estimate US 2021/22 wheat carryout from 570-640 mil bu vs USDA 583. Key is final exports. Range of exports is 820-865 vs USDA 860. US spring wheat basis is sharply lower. WZ made new higher for the move and is overbought. KWZ had an inside day with 8.43 new resistance. MWZ traded below the 20 day moving average for first time since Sep 22.

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