Ag Market View for May 26th
Soybeans traded lower. Favorable US weather, slowdown in US soybean export demand and lower SA soybean and soymeal prices weighed on prices. Uncertain US summer weather and talk of new China interest for US Oct soybean could offer support near key prices. Weekly US new crop soybean export sales are est near 200-600 mt. Last week China may have bought less than 15 Brazil soybean cargoes vs 40 needed to be bought weekly to reach 100 mmt import goal. Last week, US old crop soybean export commit was near 61.4 mmt vs 41.3 last year. China commit is near 35.7 mmt with 3.0 in unknown. USDA est total World 2020/21 soybean trade near 171.2 mmt vs 165.6 last year. Brazil 86.0 vs 92.1 ly. USDA est World 2021/22 trade near 172.9 with Brazil 93.0 and US 56.4. World 2021/22 soybean end stocks are est near 91.1 mmt vs 86.5 this year.
Corn futures tried to bounce off Tuesday steep losses. Managed funds have been big liquidators of their net long positions after a private est of US 2021 corn acres near 96.8 vs USDA March guess of 91.1, good Improvement of US Midwest weather and a slowdown in new China buying new crop US corn. Black Sea feed wheat and Argentina corn prices are a discount to US. Still concern about Argentina export Logistics and talk of a Brazil corn crop near 90-95 mmt vs USDA 102 could offer support. US domestic corn basis remain firm on increase ethanol demand and improved ethanol margins and talk China will take US old crop open unshipped sales. Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week but up from last year. Stocks were down both from last week and last year. Trade est US new crop corn export sales near 5,900-7,000 mt vs 4,061 last week. Last week, US corn total export commit was near 68.0 mmt vs 39.4 last year. USDA goal is 70.5 vs 45.1 last year. China commit is near 22.8 mmt with 5.1 in unknown. USDA 2021/22 World corn traded is est near 186.8 mmt vs 172.4 last year. USDA est World trade near 197.5. They est World 2021/22 corn end stocks near 292.3 mmt vs 283.5 this year.
Wheat futures traded mixed to lower. Higher US Dollar and lower World wheat prices continues to weigh on prices. Recent steep drop in corn futures also offers resistance to wheat futures. This week USDA higher US SRW crop ratings and improved US south plains weather weighed on prices. Annual US Kansas wheat crop tour found a crop yield near 52 and tour yield of 58 versus USDA May guess of 48 also offered resistance. Lower than expected USDA first estimate of US HRS crop offers support to MWN. Some forecast of a drier US north plains and PNW weather could support Minn wheat futures. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-600 mt vs 317 last week. Last week, US wheat export commit was near 25.6 mmt vs 26.5 ly. USDA goal is 26.2 vs 26.2 ly. USDA est World 2020/21 wheat trade near 198.6 mmt vs 193.8 last year. USDA est World 2021/22 trade is est near 202.4. Currently winter wheat buyers have JAS coverage near 45-60 pct, Spring wheat 55 pct. OND is near 10-20 pct. Most look for buyers to add to coverage on current break in prices. Higher KS yield could lower protein levels from last year.
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