Ag Market View for May 20th
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and wheat ended lower. Corn traded higher. Some are wondering if the exit of $1 trillion from crypto currencies is impacting commodity prices.
Soybeans traded lower. Soybean have gone from a high near 16.67 to today’s low near 15.23. Much of the drop was post USDA May report that failed to show tighter US 2020/21 carryout and tight US 2021/22 carryout. Some feel US 2021/22 carryout could be lower unless US 2021 soybean crop exceeds USDA guess. Managed funds also reduced longs as US 2 week and 30 day weather forecast suggest normal to above temps and normal rains. This should be good for crops. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 3 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,258 vs 1,517 last year. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. China shipments are near 1,284 mil bu with totals commit near 1,298. Some feel they could take 1,395 mil bu in 2021/22. New crop sales were 3 mil bu with unshipped open sales near 258 mil bu. Soymeal prices continue to trend lower on higher Argentina supply and talk of lower World hog and soymeal prices.
Corn futures traded higher. CN rallied from 5.18 to a high 7.35. CN then dropped to a recent low near 6.33. Rally was due to tightening World supplies. Drop was due to an unexpected high est of US 2021 corn acres and improving US Midwest weather. Last few days CN has bounced back to near 6.71. Moving average resistance is near 6.77. Key price is 6.84. Trade over and futures could make new highs. Failure to trade over could suggest a return to a lower trend. Corn is finding some support from continued China buying US new crop corn. USDA announced another 48 mil bu of new crop US corn to China. US 2020/21 corn export sales were near 11 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,678 mil bu vs 1,551 last year. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,778 last year. New crop sales were near 160 mil bu. New crop unshipped open sales are near 352 mil bu. USDA goal is 2,450. Some feel old crop exports could reach 2,900 and new crop 2,700. Talk of 96 million US 2021 acres suggest a carryout near 1,900 vs USDA 1,502. 91 million acres and carryout could be 1,200. Huge potential volatility given uncertainty over acres and yield. China corn export shipments are near 500 mil bu. Total commit is near 900. Most feel they will take all open unshipped sales. Some feel they could take 1,180 mil bu from US in 2021/22.
Wheat futures traded mixed. In April, WN was near 5.92. Talk of lower EU and Black Sea supplies and uncertain US weather rallied prices to near 7.67. Prices then dropped to near 6.71 on improved World weather and lower World prices. KWN rallied from 5.60 to 7.40 then dropped to 6.22. Most if the drop was due to improved US weather. Annual KS crop tour found the KS wheat yield near unprecedented 58 bpa vs USDA est of 48 and highest in the 20 year history of the tour. MWN has had a wild ride from a low near 6.06 to a high near 8.70 to back to near 6.85. Rally was linked to dry weather across parts of Canada prairie and US north plains. Drop due to change in the weather to chances of rain early next week. Weekly US wheat export sales were 4 mil bu. Total commit is near 942 vs 975 ly. New cop sales were up 12 mil bu.
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