Ag Market View for May 13th
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. Follow through selling after USDA report offered resistance. US stocks were higher. US Dollar was higher. Crude was lower. Copper was lower. Cattle and hogs were lower.
Soybeans traded sharply lower. Fact USDA failed to give longs bullish news on the May report triggered long liquidation. It is now a weather market with US 2 week weather mostly favorable. US drought Index continues o show dry condition in US north plains and NW Midwest. SN traded below 16.00. SX traded below 14.00. Funds were net sellers of 42,000 soybeans and 19,000 soymeal. Fact USDA increased US 2021/22 soyoil demand allowed soyoil to gain on soymeal. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 3 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,225 mil bu vs 1,473 last year. USDA soybean export goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. US soybean export program is slowing. USDA estimated US 2021/22 total supply near 4,560 vs 4,695 this year. Crop of 4,405 vs 4,135 ly. USDA est total 21/22 US demand near 4,420 vs 4,575 this year. Trade was looking for higher demand. USDA est of 2021/22 soybean carryout near 140 and is adequate if weather is normal.
Corn futures traded sharply lower. Fact USDA did not raise US 2021/22 corn demand as much as the market was trading offered resistance. Concern that a bridge over river near Memphis could collapse raised fear that corn barges may not be able to get to the gulf to load China corn boats also weighed on CN. Most look for navigation to open soon. With US 2020/21 supplies tight and domestic cash basis levels strong any US Midwest summer problems and corn futures could trend higher. Low US weekly exports weighed on futures. Neutral USDA May report limited new buying. Some feel USDA bought some time by lowering US 2021/22 corn and demand. Weekly US corn export sales dropped 4 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,667 mil bu vs 1,516 last year. USDA estimated US 2021/22 total supply near 16,272 vs 16,127 this year. Crop of 14,990. USDA est total 21/22 US demand near 14,765 vs 14,870 this year. Trade was looking for higher demand USDA est of 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,507 is adequate if weather is normal.
Wheat futures traded lower. Sharply lower corn futures and higher US Dollar Offered resistance to wheat futures. Rains in the south US plains and parts of Europe and the Black Sea also weighed on futures. Continued dryness across NA HRS area should offer support. Fact USDA raised World 2021/22 wheat Production and raised Russia crop and exports also weighed on wheat futures. WN traded back below 7.00. Wheat will remain a follower until more is known about World 2021/22 supply and demand. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 1 mil bu. Total commit is near 938 mil bu vs 969 last year. USDA wheat export goal is 965 vs 965 last year. US wheat export prices are not competitive. USDA estimated US 2021/22 total supply near 2,869 vs 2,959 this year. Crop of 1,872 vs 1,826 ly. USDA est total 21/22 US demand near 2,095 vs 2,088 this year. Higher World 2021/22 supply negative. USDA est of 2021/22 wheat carryout near 774 vs 872 this year. World stocks 295 mmt vs 294 this year.
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