Ag Market View for May 12
Soybeans, soyoil, soymeal traded higher but off session highs. Corn and wheat traded lower in wide ranges. USDA failed to increase US 2021/22 corn and soybean exports in line with higher supplies. US CPI data weighed on stock indexes and rallied Dollar today.
Soybeans traded higher. Talk of strong US domestic basis on tightening US Soybean supplies offered support. USDA basically gave the trade average Trade guess for US/World 2020/21 and 2021/22 supply and demand Except US soyoil demand. USDA jumped soyoil biofuel demand more Than expected. USDA dropped US 2021/22 soybean exports to 2,075 mil bu vs 2,280 this year. This despite increasing China imports from 100 mmt to 103. USDA did increase 2021/22 Brazil soybean crop to 144.0 mmt vs 136 this year and Argentina to 52 vs 47 this year. USDA estimated US 2021/22 soybean crush near a record 2,225 mil bu vs 2,190 this year. Some feel crush could be closer to 2,400. USDA estimated US 2021 soybean crop at 4,405 with a yield of 50.8 vs 50.2 last year. 43 pct of US Midwest is drier than normal.
Corn futures traded lower. CN closed near 7.15 with a range of 7.03 to 7.31. USDA estimated US 2021/22 carryout higher than expected and exports lower than expected. This and an increase in World 2021/22 end stocks 9 mmt offered resistance to futures. Bulls unwilling to buy the lower prices yet until more is known about US summer weather. USDA did increase World corn traded to a record 197 mmt vs 186 this year. This includes Brazil at 43 mmt vs 35 this year, Argentina 36 vs 34 and Ukraine 30.5 vs 23.0. China imports are est at 26 mmt vs 26 this year. Some are closer to 40 mmt. USDA estimated US 2021 corn crop at 14,990 mil bu with a yield near 179.5 vs 172.0 last year. USDA dropped US 2021/22 corn exports to 2,450 from 2,775 this year. Some feel 2020/21 exports could be closer to 2,900 and 2021/22 could be 400 mil bu higher. USDA est US 2021/22 ethanol use near 5,200 vs 4,975 this year. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3 pct from last week and 58 pct from last year. Stocks were down 5 pct from last week and down 20 pct from last year. USDA est US 2021/22 feed/residual near 5,700 mil bu and same as this year.
Wheat traded lower. For much of the morning, wheat futures were lower as some traders were looking for bearish World USDA 2021/22 numbers. Higher than expected US CPI data rallied the US Dollar which may have also weighed on Wheat futures. Lower new crop corn trade after USDA numbers may have also weighed on wheat futures. WN closed near 7.29 with a range of 7.24-7.51. KWN closed near 6.91 with a range of 6.87 to 7.20. Annual Kansas wheat tour is back and crop scouts will survey the crop next week. USDA est US 2021 winter wheat crop near 1,282 mil bu vs 1,171 ly; KS 331 vs 281, OK 108 vs 104, TX 61 vs 61, NE 36 vs 34, WA 108 vs 133, MO 33 vs 23 and KY 27 vs 21. Total US 2021 wheat crop is 1,872 mil bu vs 1,826 ly and carryout near 774 vs 872 ly. US 2020/21 HRW carryout is 423 vs 411 in April and 506 ly, HRS 267 vs 255 in April and 280 ly and SRW 102 vs 94 in April and 105 ly. USDA est World 21/22 end stocks near 295 mmt vs 294 this year. Trade 202 mmt vs 199 this year and feeding a record 158 mmt vs 157 this year.
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