Ag Market View for May 10
Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil traded lower. Corn and wheat traded sharply lower. Better US/World weather weighed on corn and wheat. Risk off.
Soybeans traded lower. Talk of tight US/World 2020/21 and 2021/22 soybean stocks to use ratio offered support. US soybean export year is slowing down but US soybean margins remain positive and demand for crush supports the basis. China hog prices continue to drop due to increase slaughter. Weekly US soybean exports were near 8 mil bu vs 19 ly. Season to date exports are 2,046 vs 1,260 ly. Trade estimates US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 118 mil bu vs 120, US 202 soybeans crop near 4,431 mil bu and US 2021/22 soybeans carryout near 133. USDA Outlook 21/22 soybean carryout was 145, but acres were 90. 0 vs NASS 87.6. That would suggest a crop 120 mil bu below USDA Outlook. USDA will not publish a 25 carryout so they will have to lower demand to show a carryout of 120. This despite talk China will take 40 mmt US soybeans in 21/22 vs 35 this year. US 21/22 soybean crush could also be 2,400 vs 2,190 this year.
US corn futures took a good trashing today. Some link the initial selling to better weekend US Midwest rains than forecasted. Trade also was disappointed in weekly US corn exports. USDA announced 1,020 mt of US new crop corn sold to China. Also 280 mt US corn cancelled to China. There was talk that last week, China bought a total of 5-6 mmt US new crop corn. There is talk that China last week bought 1.5 mmt Ukraine new crop corn and 500 mt Canada corn. China hog prices have fallen sharply as large volumes of heavy pigs continued to go to slaughter. China’s 2021 corn output is forecast to rise 4 pct from the previous year to 272 million tonnes. China Dalian corn futures was up 9 cents and near $10.00. US 6-10 day and 8-14 day Midwest forecast call for normal to above temps and normal rains. US corn plantings are est near 67 pct done. Weekly US corn exports were near 67 mil bu vs 55 last year. Season to date exports are 1,777 vs 991 ly. Trade estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,275 vs USDA 1,352. Trade also estimates US 2021 corn crop near 15,029 mil bu and US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,327. USDA will also estimate China 2021/22 corn imports. Some feel they could take 30-35 mmt US vs 23 this year. Bulls feel corn futures may be forming a bottom either today to tomorrow with end users taking converge before USDA report and US summer weather unknown.
Wheat futures traded sharply lower. Futures almost gave back all the gains seen from April 26-May 7. Rains falling across parts of Europe, Black Sea, and US weighed on prices. Canada and could also see some showers. Late spring and summer US and Canada forecast is still warm and dry. Matif wheat futures were lower due to better wheat. Euronext Sep wheat down 3 pct as rain in World grain regions fuels selling after last week’s rally. Goldman estimates commodity rally a Goldilocks, not too cold not too hot lasting longer and US Fed reacting slow to inflation. Weekly US wheat exports were near 20 mil bu vs 12 ly. Season to date exports are 871 vs 861 ly. Trade estimates US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 850 ml bu vs 852, US 2021 wheat crop near 1,912 mil bu and US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 751.
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