Ag Market View for June 7th
Nearby soybeans, corn and wheat were lower. Soymeal and soyoil were also lower. New crop corn and soybeans ended higher. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower. WH Council of Economic Advisors said any inflation would be temporary. Slow weekly US export sales and forecast of some rains across US Midwest triggered selling in the nearby futures. Lower China soymeal values weighed on soymeal futures. Some forecast .50 to 2.0 rain with 40% coverage of the Corn belt in the 1-5 day outlook, with rain favoring the SE. Moisture stress is expected to increase from the current 18 pct of the Corn belt to 50 pct of the Corn belt over the next two weeks (concentrated in the north-western area). Weekly US soybean exports were near 8 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 2,082 mil bu vs 1,315 ly. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 ly. Most are looking for US to keep US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 120 mil bu and 21/22 at 140.
Nearby corn futures ended lower on talk of some Midwest rains and lower than expected weekly export shipments. Over the weekend the 30 and 60 day EU weather models suggested that most of the US upper Midwest and north plains could be warmer and drier than normal. This helped CN test 7.06 and CZ test 6.18. American GFS model continues to suggest rains across the upper Midwest. Some forecast .50 to 2.0 rain with 40% coverage of the Corn belt in the 1-5 day outlook, with rain favoring the SE. Moisture stress is expected to increase from the current 18 pct of the Cornbelt to 50 pct of the Corn belt over the next two weeks (concentrated in the north-western area). Weekly US corn exports were near only 55 mil bu. This was below trade expectations and trigged selling in CN. Season to date exports are near 2,063 mil bu vs 1,176 ly. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,778 ly. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,875. Some are looking for US final 2020/21 corn carryout closer to 1,050 mil bu vs USDA 1,257 and US 2021/22 carryout near 1,150 vs USDA 1,507. One analyst suggested that if US final 2012 corn yield would be near last year’s 172, nearby corn futures could test the 2012 high near 8.44.
Wheat futures traded lower led by MWN. Talk of rains across parts of Canada prairies and US HRS area triggered long liquidation. Nearby Chicago and KC futures followed lower corn despite lower US Dollar. Over the weekend, the EU 30 and 60 day weather forecast calls for below normal rain and above normal temps for the US north plains, PNW and Canada prairies. Over the next 1-5 days these areas could see .40-1.50 inches of rain favoring SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba and 4 counties in NW North Dakota. Last week, Informa said that if weather Continues dry final US HRS crop could drop 65 mil but from their est of 505 mil bu and 530 last year. Weekly US wheat exports were near 15 mil bu vs 18 ly. Season to date exports are near 5 mil bu vs 8 last year. USDA could raise US wheat crop on June 10 but lower final US HRS crop could tighten the supply.
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