Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 28.2026
July 28, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.06-$.07 higher while spreads firmed. Both Sept-26 and Dec-26 are back above their 100-day MA’s while Sept-26 traded above yesterday’s high. Crop ratings slipped 4% to 63% G/E, vs. expectations for a 2% drop. Ratings fell in 15 states while improving in only 3. Overall ratings are the lowest for the growing season and slightly below the historical average. 78% of the crop is silking vs. 73% YA and 5-year Ave. of 74%. 25% of the crop is in the dough stage, just ahead of the 5-year Ave. and YA. Current ratings would suggest an average US yield of 183 bpa, down from 184.4 last week with production at 16.002 bil. in line with the current USDA forecast. Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his US corn yield at 181 bpa. Agrural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest is 60% complete, vs. 68% YA. While harvest in Mato Grosso is largely complete, harvest in the interior south has been slowed by rain. MARS cut their EU yield estimate 6.1% to 6.93 mt/HA. The USDA announced a flash sale of 197.3 mmt (7.8 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. US FOB Gulf offers remain below Brazil however the gap between US and Argentina widened to roughly $15 per mt. The gap between spot Dalian futures in China over US FOB Gulf has narrowed to $111/mt, down from just over $150 a month ago, reducing the odds of Chinese purchases any time soon. EU corn imports as of July 26th for the 26/27 MY at 1.05 mmt are up 42% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans up $.03-$.06, meal was steady to $4 higher while oil was off 60-80 points. Bean and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads weakened. Aug-26 filled its gap from early last week, however held above $12.00, setting up today’s recovery. Nov-26 hasn’t filled its chart gap needing a trade down to $12.04 vs. today’s low of $12.06 ¼. Inside trade for meal while Aug-26 oil has bounced off its 100-day MA support. Near term forecasts have added rain to key growing areas in the central Midwest with much of Iowa and surrounding states expected to see .75”-2.0” by the end of this week. Lighter amounts but still some precipitation is expected for the far WCB and N. Plains. The SW plains to remain hot/dry. Crush margins plunged another $.12 ½ to $2.71 bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 52.5%. Crop ratings fell 3% to 63% G/E vs. expectations for a 1% decline. Ratings are the lowest for the growing cycle however, remain slightly above their historical average. Conditions improved in 5 states, declined in 11, while holding steady in 2. 80% of the crop is blooming, vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 74%. 47% of the crop is setting pods, above YA and 5-year Ave. of 39%. Current ratings would suggest an average yield of 53.3 bpa, down from 53.9 last week with production at 4.502 bil. vs. the USDA forecast of 4.475 bil. The market has little wiggle room for US yields slipping below the current 53 bpa trendline forecast. There were no flash sales today despite US Gulf FOB offers slipping to a $.10 discount to Brazilian offers for Sept/Oct. US FOB offers for August remain slightly above Brazil. Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his US yield est. at 52 bpa. EU meal imports as of July 26th at 560k mt are down 39% YOY. Meal imports at 1.08 mmt are down 17%. Abiove raised their Brazilian soybean export forecast for 2026 1.1% to 115.4 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 115 mmt. They also raised their crush forecast by .3 mmt to 63.3 vs. the USDA estimate of 61.5 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.04 lower to $.02 ½ higher with all 3 classes experiencing 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was up $.02 ½ at $6.62 ½, KC Sept-26 is $.02 ¾ lower at $7.26 ¼, while MIAX Sept-26 is $.03 ¾ lower at $7.02 ½. Russia and Ukraine continue to target each other’s grain storage, port infrastructure and vessels limited grain movement from the region while raising logistical costs. SovEcon lowered Russia’s 26/27 wheat export forecast 2 mmt to 44.6 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 47.5 mmt. MARS lowered their EU soft wheat yield est. to 5.88 mt/HA, down from 6.0 last month and is down 7% YOY. US winter wheat harvest advanced to 81%, vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 79%. Spring wheat ratings held steady at 53% G/E vs. expectations for a 2% decline, however 15% of the crop is now rated poor/VP up 3%. Composite ratings have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks. 92% of the crop is headed while 2% of the crop has been harvested. Crop ratings would suggest an average yield of 49.4 bpa and production at 449 mil. below the USDA July-26 forecast of 475 mil. EU soft wheat exports as of July 26th at 570k mt are down 61.5% YOY.
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