Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 27.2026
July 27, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.12-$.14 lower while spreads were mixed. Both Sept-26 and Dec-26 violated support at their 100-day MA’s however held above LW’s low. Cattle on feed as of July 1st at 11.37 mil. head was up 2.2% from YA and in line with trade expectations. Placements were down nearly 3% vs. expectations of down 1.2% while marketing were down 2.7%. The USDA will start a phased reopening of the US border to cattle imports beginning Aug. 24th. Money managers bought nearly 50k contracts of corn extending their long position to 93K as of last Tues. July 21st.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply lower across the complex with beans down $.34-$.40, meal was $10-$12 lower while oil is off over $.02 ½ lb. Aug-26 soybeans came within a $.00 ¼ of filling its gap from last Sunday nights open. Nov-26 needs to trade down to $12.04 to fill its gap, vs. today’s $12.11 low. Aug-26 meal has MA support between $315-$316. Aug-26 oil violated support at its 50-day MA at 72.22 with next support at 70.11. Prices across the Ag. space were sharply lower in response to a steep drop in energy prices. Crude oil prices collapsed as the Trump Admin. paused plans to escalate the war with Iran in hopes that diplomatic measures can achieve a peace solution while reopening the Straits of Hormuz. As expected 100+ degree heat blanketed much of the plains and WCB this weekend. While their was little to no precipitation for Iowa and the Great Lakes region, forecasts this week for coverage of .75”-1.50” would keep yields prospects high. Lighter amounts for the WCB and Northern plains with little to no precipitation for the S. Plains. Above normal temperatures with limited prospects for rain hold throught the first week of August where crop stress will remain elevated. Crush margins fell another $.15 to $2.83 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 52.7%. The MM long position across the soybean complex swelled to just over 325k contracts as of last Tuesday, still a fair amount below the record on 502k in May-26. The market has little wiggle room for US yields slipping below the current 53 bpa trendline forecast.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.08 to $.18 lower. CGO Sept-26 was down $.18 at $6.60, KC Sept-26 was $.16 ¼ lower at $7.29 while MIAX Sept-26 was off $.08 at $7.06 ¼. CGO dipped to a 2-week lower while KC held within Friday’s range. Russia and Ukraine continue to target each other’s grain storage, port infrastructure and vessels. The disruption of agricultural goods from the Black Sea region continues. IKAR lowered their 2026 Russian wheat production forecast by 1.1 mmt to 90 mmt, still above the USDA est. of 88.5 mmt. IKAR also lowered their wheat export forecast to 44.5 mmt, donw 3.7% from 25/26 MY. The combined MM position in the 3 classes of wheat has swung around to net long for the first time in 2 months, however still short 19k in CGO. I look for another 3-4% drop in spring wheat crop ratings, down from 53% G/E last week. Export inspections at 14.5 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and just above the 13 mil. needed to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 93 mil. bu. are down 23% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 17%.
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