Ag Market View for Jan 11.24


Prices were $.01 – $.02 lower in two sided trading.  It was an inside trading session for Mch-24.  First support is at the contract low of $4.51 ¾ followed by $4.47.  Moving average resistance keeps drifting lower with the 50 day at $4.79 ½ and 100 day at $4.89 ½.  Markets are bracing for 2 storms, one from Mother Nature and one from a slew of USDA data at 11 AM CST tomorrow.  Mother Nature’s storm is on track to bring heavy rain, snow, ice and high winds across the nation’s midsection thru Saturday.  Travel disruptions and stress on livestock is expected.  NOAA’s CPC places a 73% chance El Nino conditions will switch over to ENSO neutral by Spring, increasing the odds of favorable US planting conditions.  Export sales at 19 mil. bu. were below expectations.  YTD commitments at 1.192 bil. are up 38% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%.  In addition the USDA announced the sale of 175k tons (7 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico.  The Rosario Board of Trade increased their Argentine production forecast by 3 mmt to 59 mmt, vs. the Dec-23 USDA forecast of 55 mmt.  The International Grain Council increased their global corn production forecast 7 mmt to 1.230 bil. mt vs. the Dec-23 USDA est. of 1.222 bil. mt.  

screen trading


The complex was mixed with beans steady to $.02 higher, meal was steady to $2 lower, while oil was 40 – 50 higher.  Mch-24 soybeans remain stuck within Tuesday’s range of $12.34 – $12.51 ½.  Mch-24 oil continues to build support above $.48 with next resistance at the 50 day MA currently $.5006.  An outside trading day down for Mch-24 meal as prices have carved out a new 7 month low.  Next support is the June-23 low near $353.  Conditions is SA are expected to remain mostly favorable thru late Jan-24, however dry areas in center south Brazil will need moisture by month-end to relieve recent stress.  Export sales at 10 mil. bu. were below expectations.  YTD commitments at 1.353 bil. are down 17% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 12%.  Soybean meal exports at 65k mt were below expectations.  YTD commitments are still up 16% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4%.  US sales have slowed considerably in recent weeks as Argentine production prospects increase.  For now I see no change the current USDA meal export forecast of 15.3 mil. tons.  The Rosario Board of Trade raised their Argentine production forecast 2 mmt to 52 mmt, vs. the Dec-23 USDA est. of 48 mmt.  


Prices were $.07 – $.09 lower across all 3 classes today.  KC and MGEX Mch-24 contracts both had an outside day down.  MGEX Mch-24 violated the $7.00 level however held support above the contract low at $6.97 ½.  Bitter cold behind this week’s storms could damage winter wheat crops in the NW plains where snow cover is minimal.  There is better snow coverage across the Southern plains.  Export sales at 5 mil. bu. were below expectations.  YTD commitments at 566 mil. are still up 2% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of sown 4.5%.  There were no shipments of SRW wheat to China leaving outstanding sales at 60 mil. bu.  The IGC increased their global wheat production forecast 1 mmt to 778 mmt vs. the Dec-23 USDA est. of 783 mmt.  Algeria reported bought between 250k – 350k mt of durum wheat.  The reported price was between $450 – $465/mt CF, depending on vessel size.  Most is expected to have been sourced from Canada.

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