Ag Market View for Dec 11.23


Prices were down $.03 – $.04 today absorbing spill over weakness from sharply lower wheat prices.  Resistance for Mch-24 rests just above the market at the 50 day MA, currently $4.93 ½, followed by the 100 day MA at $5.00 ½.  Support is at the Nov-23 low at $4.70.  Last week Money managers were net buyers of nearly 46k contracts, reducing their short position to 160,533 contracts.  Export inspections at only 28 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and well below the 45 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.10 bil. bu.  YTD inspections at 361 mil. are up 28% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%.  AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn crop is 95% planted, vs. 96% YA.  China estimates their 2023 corn crop at a record 288.8 mmt, above the USDA estimate of 277 mmt.  Stocks to use ratio among the top 4 corn exporters was little changed in Dec-23 at 12%, down from 12.1% in Nov-23.  The USDA kept the US Ave. farm price unchanged at $4.85 on Friday which from a historical perspective seems high given domestic stocks/use ratio remains at a 5 year high at 14.7 %.

ADM President Juan Luciano


The soybean complex was higher across the board closing near session highs.  Beans were up $.26 – $.32, meal was $6 – $9 higher, while oil is up 60 – 70.  Jan-24 soybeans surged above last week’s high, next resistance is the 100 day MA at $13.42.  Both Jan-24 meal and oil however remain below Friday’s high.  South American weather remains a mixed bag with no better than scattered showers this past weekend across northern growing areas of Brazil, heavier rains across southern MGDS and western Parana, while little to no rain in the NE and southern half of RGDS.  Below normal moisture likely for the next week to 10 days in northern Brazil, with above normal precipitation to continue across the south.  A good mix of rain and sunshine for Argentina.  Last week Money managers were net sellers across the soybean complex selling nearly 31k beans, just over 13k in the oil, and 17,616 contracts of meal.  The combined selling in the bean complex last week at nearly 62k contracts was the most in 8 months.  Export inspections at 36 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however were a 10 week low.  YTD inspections at 725 mil. are down 16% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 12%.  AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean plantings at 91% vs. 95% YA.  China estimates their 2023 corn crop at a record 288.8 mmt, above the USDA estimate of 277 mmt.  The stocks/use ratio among the top 4 exporters fell to 21.1% in Dec-23, down from 21.9% in Nov-23 however remained at a 5 year high.  The USDA kept the US Ave. farm price unchanged at $12.90 on Friday which also seems high from a historical perspective with domestic stocks/use just under 6%, however seems to be a better fit given recent history.


Prices were sharply lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and MGEX down $.17 – $.22, while KC was down $.28 – $.30.  Support for Chicago Mch-24 is at the 50 day MA, currently $5.99 ½.  There were no new export announcements from the USDA this AM with traders quickly pricing in an abrupt end to the Chinese purchases.  Export inspections at 10 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 14 mil. bu. pace needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 725 mil. bu.  MM’s last week were buyers of nearly 24k of Chicago wheat and 11k in KC wheat reducing their short positions to just over 96k and just under 39k respectively.  Tunisia is seeking 100k mt of soft wheat and 75k mt of durum, both optional origin with both tenders to close tomorrow, Dec. 12th.  Both Bangladesh and Algeria are seeking 50k mt of optional origin milling wheat.  The Russian Govt. has banned the export of durum wheat until June-24.  From July-23 thru mid-Nov-23 durum exports had reached just over 650k mt, well above the 52k mt from same period YA.  The USDA is forecasting total Russian wheat exports at a record 50 mil. mt for the 2023/24 MY. 

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