Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Aug 19.2026
August 19, 2026
CORN
Prices were steady to $.02 lower while spreads weakened. Sept-26 and Dec-26 both traded to a 3-month high overnight. Day 1 of the Pro Farmer crop tour estimated SD corn yields will reach only 149 bpa, down from last year’s forecast of 174 bpa. In OH they forecast yields at 180.2 bpa, down from 185.7 last year while pegging NE at 160.7 bpa vs. 179.5 YA. Day 2 results likely out this afternoon. US corn conditions slipped 1% to 60% G/E, in line with expectations. Composite ratings improved in 7 states, declined in 9 while holding steady in 2. Overall ratings fell to a fresh growing season low while slightly below the historical average. 76% of the crop is in the dough stage, 29% is dented while 4% of the crop is mature, all just ahead of the 5-year Ave. Using updated USDA acreage data my model is suggesting an average US yield of 180.4 bpa with production at 15.983 bil. bu., just below the USDA forecast of 16.013 bil. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop is 85% harvested vs. 94% YA. Speculative traders were net buyers of over 20k contracts yesterday stretching their long position to 244k contracts, which if realized would be the largest in 3 months. O.I. jumped just over 15k contracts.
SOYBEANS
Prices surged to new highs in late trade, closing up $.08-$.10. Spreads were mixed. Sept-26 and Dec-26 both traded to 3-month highs with next resistance for Dec-26 at its May high of $5.06 ½ followed by its contract high at $5.12 ½. The Pro Farmer crop tour pegs NE corn yields at only 163.6 bpa, vs. 179.5 YA and the 3-year Ave. of 173.3 bpa, while IN came in at 183.5 bpa, down from 193.8 from YA and 3-year Ave. of 187.4. EIA data showed ethanol production slumped to 320 mil. gallons, down from 328 mil. the previous week, however up 1.6% YOY. Production was below expectations and slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage estimate of 5.550 bil. bu. In the MY to date there has been 5.287 bil. bu. used, or 15.19 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.546 bil. Stocks rose to 25.1 mil. barrels, well above YA at 22.7. With heat stress and drought in Kansas this summer the USDA slashed their 2026 sorghum production to 296 mil. bu. vs. 437 mil. YA. Sorghum usage for ethanol production is expected to reach 120 mil. bu. in 25/26 before falling to only 80 mil. in 2026/27. Despite this the USDA made no change to the corn usage est. in 26/27 MY, holding at 5.60 bil. bu. I look for that to work higher at some point. This Friday’s COF report is expected to show placements down 6.2% from YA at 1.498 mil. head with total on-feed inventories at 11.2 mil. up 2.5%. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 20-70 mil. bu. for both MY’s combined. I look for Dec-26 to challenge its contract high at $5.12 ½.
WHEAT
Prices shook off early weakness, jumping out to gains of $.16-$.18. CGO Sept-26 was up $.15 ¾ at $6.80 ¼, KC Sept-26 was $.18 ¼ higher at $7.62 while MIAX Sept-26 was up $.17 ¾ at $6.94. Russian military claims to have struck 2 dry cargo ships near Ukraine’s port of Odesa and fuel tanks in the port of Chornomorsk, while Ukraine struck at least 5 grain ships near the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse. All grain terminals in Novorossiysk remain closed. Analysts at Rusagrotrans lowered their Russian wheat export forecast in August to only 1.8 mmt, down 60% YOY and if realized would be the lowest figure for the month since 2010. A grain consultant in Ukraine fears their wheat exports in 26/27 could fall somewhere between 5-10 mmt, down from a range of 14-21 mmt over the past decade. Last week the USDA lowered their forecast 1 mmt to 13.5 mmt.
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