Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 19.24
April 19, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. SX is back below 14.00. SMZ is below 400. BOZ is below 66 cents. Concern about demand for US soybean exports and improving US Midwest weather offered resistance. There was reports that China will accept beef imports from New Zealand and Australia. USDA did report 228 mt of US 2022/23 soybeans were sold to Mexico. No talk of new US sales to China. This week China slow economic data forced China to lower interest rates to shore up their economy. China is the number one importing commodity country. USDA dropped US soybean ratings 1 pct to 58 pct G/E. One of the last crop watchers standing est US 2022 soybean yield near 50.5 vs USDA 51.9or a crop of 4,400 mil bu vs USDA 4,531.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. CZ is back testing the lower end of what some feel is a trading range. US domestic cash basis is lower as US harvest nears. There was talk that one group is out in IL corn fields today and finding potential record high corn yields. USDA dropped US corn ratings 1 pct to 57 pct G/E. One of the last crop watchers standing est US 2022 corn yield near 173 vs USDA 175.4 or a crop of 14,070 mil bu vs USDA 14,359. Best crops are in WI, IL, MI, IA and ND. Lowest rated crops are in TX, KS, TN and KY. Driest soils are in KS, NE, MO, IA and SD where some of the rains are falling. Some are reporting KS corn yield near 30-40 bpa and TW 50 lbs. Early reports suggest Argentina farmers are expected to grow a 55.0 mmt 2023 corn crop vs 52.0 last year. Farmers there face lower capital, higher cost and 70 pct inflation. One climate group this week forecasted another dry year for Argentina in 2023. Scattered rains are forecast for parts of EU. Matif corn traded near 8.65. Cattle futures were higher. Aug 1 COF is est near 100.7, placements 98.5 and marketing 97.1. Ukraine announced they can exports 3 mmt of grain in September
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Next week parts of US south plains could see needed rains. USDA kept US spring wheat rating at 64 pct G/E. 16 pct of crop is harvested. 90 pct of US winter wheat crop is harvested. Rains next week across US south plains should help soils before planting US 2023 HRW crop. Increase Russia wheat supplies and lower prices offers resistance. Lower World economies is also negative food demand. Hungry World is supportive. Ukraine winter grain planted acres could fall 30-60 pct. Sovecon raised their estimate IF Russia 2022 wheat crop to 94.7 mmt vs 90.9 previous and USDA 88.0. First post blockade humanitarian food aid vessel left Ukraine for Africa. WZ is back near 8.00. KWZ is near back near 8.68 support. MWZ tested 9.13 support.
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