Ag Market View for Apr 29
Crazy extremely choppy close. Soybeans, soyoil and KC wheat ended lower. Nearby corn and Chicago and Mpls wheat traded higher. US stocks were higher. Crude was higher. Copper ended lower today.
May soybean and soyoil traded lower into deliveries. Word of US soybean Imports from Brazil may have spooked the longs. US domestic cash basis Remains firm due to positive crush margins. On Monday, USDA March Soybean crush should be near 188 mil bu vs last year’s record 192. End of March soyoil stocks should be near 2,317 mil lbs vs 2,306 last month and 2,327 ly. Weekly US soybean sales were 10 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,245 vs 1,429 ly. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 ly. China commit is near 1,310 mil bu with shipments near 1,280. Some est World 2021/22 soybean crop near 345 mmt vs 321 this year. Brazil 141 vs 136 and Argentina 55 vs 47. Trade could be a record 172 mmt. Crush could also be a record 167 mmt. Exporters end stocks could be near 3 year low and 73 mmt. Some feel lower World soybean and soymeal prices vs US could weigh on futures after May deliveries.
May corn rallied on the close into deliveries or lack of. CN also rallied and traded near 7.47. CZ was down 1 cent and near 5.45. Talk that domestic users may want May contracts offered support. Fact cash is 13 cents over July futures supports CN-CZ spread. Some feel US corn plantings could be 40-50 pct done. Over the 2 week must of the US Midwest could see normal rains. This could suggest first USDA crop rating could be above average. This could be negative given large Managed funds net long. Talk of lower Brazil corn crop is supportive to July and could increase US export demand. Weekly US corn export sales were near 20 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,666 mil bu vs 1,444 last year. USDA goal is 2,675 vs 1,778 last year. China commit is 905 mil bu with 420 shipped. IGC estimated World 2021/22 corn crop near1,192 mmt. This is down from previous estimate. They est US crop near 379 mmt vs 384 previous and 360 ly. Drop due to cool start. It will now be up to US spring and summer weather. Our weather guy feels warm Pacific water temps Increase the chance of a US summer ridge in the US west Midwest and north plains. Today, the temps are cooling. If they continue to cool this could reduce the chance of ridging. Warmer temps will keep the chance high. Stay tune. American weather model changes every 6 hours.
Wheat futures closed mixed. Lack of May deliveries may have helped WK and MWK. Talk that there could be KC deliveries offered resistance to KWK. Forecast of drier than normal US north plains and Canada weather also supported MWN. Matif wheat future traded lower on talk of increase rain chances in West Europe, Russia and Ukraine. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 8 mil bu. Total commit is near 940 vs 952 last year. USDA goal including flour is 985 vs 965 ly. IGC kept World wheat crop at 790 mmt vs 774 last year. WK rallied from 5.93 to 7.73 and was basically a follower to corn but there is concern about US and Canada 2021 HRS crop. It will now be up to US spring and summer weather. Our weather guy feels warm Pacific water temps Increase the chance of a US summer ridge in the US north plains. Today, the temps are cooling. If they continue to cool this could reduce the chance of ridging. Warmer temps will keep the chance high.
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