Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
Nearby soybeans, soyoil, nearby corn and wheat traded higher. Soymeal traded lower. US stocks and US Dollar were lower. Crude and gold were higher. Higher US CPI data suggested increase inflation which helped most commodities.
SOYBEANS
Nearby soybean prices traded higher. Higher palmoil prices offered support to both soyoil and soybeans. Lower China soymeal prices weighed on soymeal. Soybean futures are trading higher. US soybean domestic basis is firm on good margins. US NOPA March soybean crush should be record high. US soybean export program has slowed. China Q1 soybean imports were a record 21 mmt. Still, China weekly soybean crush dropped below last week and lower margins and soft demand for soymeal. Brazil soybean export basis is finally firming. Vessel line up is near 12.8 mmt with 6 mmt loaded in April so far. World vegoil prices firmed on hopes of increase demand. SK resistance is near 14.00. SX support is near 12.50.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher. Weekly US planting pace was below est. This and dry Brazil summer weather offered support. Domestic Brazil corn prices remain record high. There is talk of Brazil buying Argentina corn for import. Weekly US ethanol production should be higher than last week. There could be a small gains in stocks from last week. US domestic basis continues to be strong on slow farmer sales and talk of increase US corn export liftings, feed demand and energy demand. China corn prices traded higher and near $10.45. This despite concern about ASF and record feed grain imports. China Q1 corn imports were a record 6.7 mmt and suggest total imports will exceed USDA guess of 24 mmt. There still though is concern that US exports to China are only 9 mmt versus 23 mmt sold. One consultant suggested today that some of China open commit may be rolled to new crop. US corn plantings are near 4 pct vs 3 average. US Midwest below normal temps could slow germination. CZ made new highs. CK found support near 5.65 and traded back over 5.80.
WHEAT
Wheat futures managed small gains. Wheat futures followed higher corn trade. USDA rated the US winter wheat crop 53 pct G/E vs 53 last week and 62 last year. US spring wheat plantings were near 11 pct vs 6 average. Most of the increase was in WA, ID and SD. ND soil moisture levels are still rated below average. Wheat is up to 20212 north hemisphere weather and Russia export policy. WK had an inside day with support near 6.23 and resistance near 6.40. KWK also had a inside day with support near 5.75 and resistance near 5.92 then 6.00. MWK also has an inside day with support near 6.40 and resistance near 6.60. US CPI data was better than expected and hinted in increase inflation. Grains love the smell of inflation.
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