Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. Soyoil and Crude traded lower after UN report suggested humans were responsible for climate change. The report suggested more extreme weather and rising sea water levels. This could increase debate against fossil fuel. Soybeans also traded lower after slow US weekly export sales. Season to date US exports are near 2,145 mil bu vs 1,479 last year. USDA goal is 2,270 vs 1,679 last year. Some feel final exports could be 20 mil bu lower than USDA est. Noon Weather maps also added rains for north US Midwest day 10-14. Trade est US 2021 soybean crop near 4,375 mil bu vs USDA 4.405. One guess though is near 4,464. This limits new buying before USDA, Trade also est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 148 vs USDA 135 and 21/22 159 vs USDA 155. Trade est US soybean crop 60 pct G/E vs 60 last week.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. CU dropped 4 cents and ended near 5.50. CU tested initial resistance near 5.55. Some weakness was linked to UN report suggested humans were responsible for climate change. The report suggested more extreme weather and rising sea water levels. This could increase debate against fossil fuel. Corn futures also traded lower after slow US weekly exports. Season to date US exports are near 2,500 mil bu vs 1,553 last year. USDA goal is 2,850 vs 1,727last year. Some feel final exports could be 125 mil bu lower than USDA est. Still, higher domestic ethanol and feed use could offset lower exports. Noon weather maps also added rains for north US Midwest day 10-14. CZ ended down 2 cents and near 5.53. CU may have loss vs CZ due to Index funds rolling longs out the of the Sep. Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 15,004 mil bu vs USDA 15,165. Trade also est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,096 vs USDA 1,082 and 21/22 1,297 vs USDA 1,432. Trade est US corn crop 62 pct G/E vs 62 last week.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. WU ended down 7 cents and near 7.11 with range 7.08-7.23. KWU ended down 3 cents and near 7.02 with range 6.96-7.12. MWU ended down 7 cents and near 9.08 with range 9.06 – 9.24. Lower financial markets due to concern spread of Covid variants could slow global economy and food and fuel demand. Drop in US domestic corn prices and global corn prices versus Black Sea Feed Wheat may have also offered resistance to wheat futures. Higher US Dollar and continued spread of Covid variants could also slow global economies and food demand. Trade est US spring wheat rated 10 pct G/E vs 10 last week and harvest near 33 pct vs 17 last week. US winter wheat harvest is est near 96 pct done vs 91 last week. Weekly US exports were near 22 mil bu vs 17 last year. Season to date exports are near 161 mil bu vs 190 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 ly.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
