Ag Market View Aug 17th


Soybeans traded lower on increase concern about demand. Forecast for rains across the central US Midwest also offered resistance. Fact USDA announced new US soybean sales to China and unknown offered support. Some feel SX may not be above to rally much over 13.80 as US harvest nears. Same group could see increase consumer buying below 13.59 SX. Fundamental analyst remain discouraged at the choppy trade despite mostly positive US/World soybean numbers. Rains are forecasted for parts of the US north plains and Canada prairies. Some though still feel Canada canola crop could drop below 15 mmt. Pro Farmer tour estimate OH soybean pod count above ly and SD below. USDA est OH soybean yield near 58 bpa vs 54 ly, SD 39 vs 45.5 ly.


Corn futures ended lower and near session lows. Fact USDA dropped weekly US corn crop ratings offered early support. Sharp losses in equites and energies may have triggered long liquidation on grains. Fact that longs bought US Dollar in a flight to quality may have also offered resistance to Ag futures. CZZ ended near 5,63 with range 5.61 to 5.73. USDA dropped US corn ratings from 64 pct G/E to Most Midwest states dropped. Ratings did increase in WI and OH. Highest rated crops are in OH, WI, MI, KY, IL and IN. Lowest in MN, ND and SD. Pro Farmer est OH corn yield near 185 vs USDA 193 and 171. Tour tends to underestimate OH corn yield. Tour also est SD corn yield near 151 vs USDA 133 and 162 ly. Tour tends to overstate SD corn yield. Key could be tour IL and IA corn yield. Tour tends to est IL/IA corn yield below USDA August est. USDA est IL yield near 214 vs 192 ly, IA 193 vs 178 ly. Rain is due parts of MN, IA, IL and IN next week. Noon GFS added rain for WCB and IL Sat through Tue. This may be overdone. Maps reduced rain Monday in NE and SD Monday and much of the central Midwest and Delta Aug 29-31. This may be needed. There was talk that Brazil may not be offering corn for export after Oct. Brazil domestic corn price is above 8.00 through March 2022. High domestic price could limit exports. Some feel there may be end user buying below 5.60 CZ.


Wheat futures traded sharply lower. Talk that wheat futures near recent highs had factored in most of the pre USDA and post USDA report may have triggered profit taking and long liquidation. WZ ended near 7.48 with range 7.45 to 7.78. Sell stops may have been hit below Friday’s low. KWZ ended near 7.28 with range 7.26 to 7.53. Sell stops may have been hit below Fridays lows. Todays selloff almost erased all of the USDA rally. Reversal yesterday in Paris wheat futures from their highs and continue weakness today and higher US Dollar may have also triggered new selling. Some feel recent rally in Paris wheat futures may have supported US rally. MWZ ended near 9.06 with range 9.06 to 9.29. Numbers have not changed. US wheat export prices are a premium to other sellers. Steep drop in Canada and Russia crops increases concern over their export supplies. Argentina wheat areas remain dry. USDA left US spring wheat crop rating at 11 pct G/E vs 70 ly. 58 pct of the crop is harvested vs 36 average. 

                                                     December Chicago wheat futures chart

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