Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 24.24
April 24, 2024
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 16 May
- May 17, 2023
- ADMISI Grains Team
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London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
More missiles rained down on Kyiv last night as the Kremlin appeared to make a statement. Different reports today, some stating that all were taken out by air defence systems and Kremlin saying one had taken out a Patriot system … who knows really as there is so much propaganda flying around currently. US debt chatter continues. Russia lashes out at Macron for denouncing China’s intentions. Sudan fighting fires up. Corridor chatter … well … we’re just rumbling on now aren’t we.
Crop ratings in the US saw minimal movement really, on par to what the trade anticipated and maybe even a little improved overall.
Wheat markets, oh shock, are pulling back again after their little trip higher, riding the wave post Friday’s WASDE. Russian wheat will remain the world’s price maker and dictate to as they see fit. Grain deal chat continues, UN remains optimistic that it will roll over, albeit potentially for a shorter period. Different sources dictate different ways it’s being pulled but I think the Kremlin has a greater chance of joining NATO than the ammonia pipeline being reopened in the present form.
Russian spring planting has passed the halfway mark by May 15th and expect them to keep on trucking. EU weekly exports at 234kt in the W/E 15th May, led by Poland. Egyptian import numbers appear t be flat and there is chatter that they have their reserves stocked up …… oh hello GASC! Russia has accounted for 83% of their imports to date according to Benson Quinn and they did sign their GOVT to GOVT deal a couple of months ago. Saudi and Turkey continue to import further volumes of Uncle Vlad’s wheat according to market chat. Canadian weather issues are worth keeping an eye on but I’m still of the opinion that the additional acres will offset the weather issues … time will tell I suppose.
Matif wheat was very much like Chicago, pulling back. Dec-23 Matif wheat was trading around the €240/t mark this afternoon. Traded volumes are pretty dull for this time of the year. London wheat was also uneventful today with Nov-23 pulling back from the £200/t levels and seen entering a holding pattern around £197.50 – 198.
US corn planting pace is slightly behind its 5 year average. Dr Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn estimates by 1Mmt to 125Mmt corn and also raised beans to 155Mmt. Brazilian bean harvest is at 97.8% complete. Chicago beans have dropped through the floor again. France is set to see the lowest corn planted area in 30 years. Matif rapeseed followed beans, falling lower with Aug-23 sitting around the €408/t level.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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