Ag Price Movement Limited as Energies Provide Support

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mixed trade across the Ag space overnight with most contracts experiencing 2-sided trade.  Price movement was limited as higher energy prices provides underlying support while favorable US weather limits upside potential.  Friday’s CFTC data as expected showed speculative traders were heavy sellers across the Ag. space as of last Tuesday the 2nd.  Continued selling the 2nd half of the week cut further into MM’s long holdings while driving their short position in CGO wheat to back over 70k contracts.    US weather saw widespread rains across the C Midwest this weekend with lighter amounts for the far WCB.  Rains this week will favor the central Midwest and ECB with lighter amounts for the WCB and Delta region.  Much of the nation’s midsection is expected to hold in an above to much above normal temperature pattern.  Weekend rains in Brazil were limited to the deep south in RGDS.  Rains in the WC region the 2nd half of this week will benefit 2nd crop corn.  Weekend rains in Argentina won’t slow the remaining corn harvest for long with a dryer outlook this week.  The US $$ is little changed after trading to a fresh 2-month high overnight.  US stock indices are steady to higher.

Corn:

July-26 and Dec-26 are both $.02 lower at $4.15 ½ and $4.44 respectively.  July-26 traded to a new contract low while Dec-26 reached a 10-month low.  There is still a gap on the weekly bar chart from Sept-25 that would require July to trade down to $4.05 ¼ to fill.  Traders expect little change in corn stocks (old and new crop) and new crop production in Thursday’s USDA updates.  I’ve got old crop ending stocks unchanged at 2.142 bil with a 25 mil bu increase in exports offset by lower usage for ethanol.

Soybeans: 

July-26 beans are $.05 lower at $11.16 ½ while Nov-26 beans are off $.03 at $11.34 1/2.  Fresh 4-month lower for July while a 3-month low for Nov.  July-26 meal is down $1.80 at $306.70 reaching a 4-month low in the process.  July-26 oil is 52 points lower at 73.60.  After collapsing $.27 on Friday, board crush margins are off another $.02 ½ overnight to $3.70 bu.  After raising crush 20 mil. last month and lowering exports 10 mil. I’m looking for no changes this month with stocks ending holding near 340 mil bu, in line with the average trade guess.  No changes expected for 2026 production of stocks.

Wheat:

Prices are steady to $.05 higher.  CGO July-26 is unchanged at $5.80, KC July-26 is $.05 higher at $6.25 ¾ while MIAX July-26 is up $.02 at $6.21 ½.  CGO and MIAX July-26 both slipped to a 3-month low before recovering.  Russian media is reporting the Novorossiysk Grain Plant in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea area is operating normally despite Ukrainian drone attacks.  I’m showing the 39K contracts of CGO wheat sold by MM’s is the most ever in 1 week.

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