Written Commentary
Geopolitical Concerns Ease a Bit
December 26, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain calls are slightly higher. Gold, silver and platinum jumped to all-time high with support from escalating geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness. US stocks are slightly lower in thin trading. The US launched a military strike in Nigeria against Islamic State targets in collaboration with the African nation’s government. Oil is heading for its biggest weekly gain since late October. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he plans to meet with US President Donald Trump “in the coming days,” signaling optimism about reaching a peace deal to end Russia’s almost four-year war.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.76. SH is above key moving averages. Open interest is down. Volume is down. Palmoil prices are higher on new export demand. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout closer to 360 mil bu vs USDA 290 due to lower exports. Some look for USDA to increase US 2025 soybean yield slightly in January due to record pod count. US soymeal export sales were well above estimates. This supported futures. Brazil and parts of Argentina weather remains favorable for crops.
CORN
CH is near 4.51. CH continues to inch higher on solid US exports and slow farmer selling. CH is above key moving averages and nearing overbought. Open interest is up. Volume is down. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout closer to 2,325 mil bu vs USDA 2,029 due to lower domestic use. Some look for USDA to drop US 2025 corn yield 2 bpa in January. Same group feels USDA needs to drop the yield 4 bpa to push prices above resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.21. Open interest increased on selloff to 5.05. WH just below key moving averages. Next resistance level 5.26 then 5.35. KWH is near 5.34. MWH is near 5.80. Wheat futures and most commodities are seeing a year end rally. US south plains temps are warmer than normal and could make crop vulnerable to cold spell.
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