Wkly Futures Market Summary For 9.2.2025

SOYBEANS

Following the holiday weekend, beans are under pressure this morning on demand worries and a stronger US dollar. The lack of any news regarding trade talks with China’s top negotiator in Washington is also weighing on sentiment, as China is covering some of its November bean import needs from South America. China’s auction of reserve beans on Friday sold 65% of the 104,250 tonnes offered. US bean export prices are the cheapest through September/October, but Argentina undercuts US for November delivery.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The soymeal market has lost some of its recent momentum as weaker South American pricing and poor technical action have pressured prices. Argentine and Brazilian soymeal prices have drifted lower, widening the price gap and raising concerns that global buyers could increasingly shift demand away from US origins. While US nearby supply remains tight due to ongoing processor downtime, the softer global basis is undermining domestic price support. Crush margins collapsed in the latter half of August, reducing incentives for aggressive US processing.

CORN

Friday’s rally above resistance triggered heavy buying, and December had its best close in over a month, forming an upside reversal on the monthly chart and keeping the edge with the bull camp. Dry conditions continued in the eastern belt over the holiday weekend, with rain falling from South Dakota down through Texas.

WHEAT

Chicago wheat closed near the highs of the week on Friday, but prices are weakening again this morning in disappointing action, partly due to a stronger US dollar. The bull camp was hoping for a breakout this week of the near-term sideways range. However, Russian wheat is $5 lower than last week, and EU wheat is near its contract lows, resulting in stagnant global prices that limit buying enthusiasm in US futures.

CATTLE

Live cattle and feeder prices closed strong on Friday but may start off with a weaker tone this morning, as the US stock market is significantly weaker and the US dollar is higher. The August live cattle contract expired on Friday, more than $55 higher than the August 2024 contract.

HOGS

December hogs moved to a new contract high on Friday as open interest increased another 4,650 contracts, keeping the bull camp in firm control. However, the market may see some pressure on the opening this morning from a strong upside move in the US dollar. Speculative fund longs were clearly adding to their positions last week.

MILK CLASS III

October Class III milk finished with a mild weekly gain after reaching a 2 1/2-week high on Wednesday and falling to a contract low on Thursday.

ENERGIES

Crude oil and the products broke out above last Monday’s highs overnight and traded to their highest levels since the early part of August, but the action has been volatile. Reports that Asian crude oil imports were up sharply in August due to strong buying by China and India from the Middle East may have lent support.

October Natural Gas has reversed lower this morning after trading to its highest level since August 12 overnight. The market managed to push through the August 15 high but did not follow through to the upside, and this appeared to bring in sellers. Friday’s The Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were down 3 rigs to 119 last week. This was up from 95 rigs a year ago and above the five-year average of 109.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is higher as investors await Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls data, alongside unemployment, job openings, and private hiring figures also due this week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday the central bank is prepared to ease policy given risks to the labor market, adding that tariff-driven inflation may prove temporary. Markets are pricing in a roughly 90% chance of a rate cut in September.

COCOA

December Cocoa was lower overnight, sticking to the downtrend it has been observing since putting in a two-month high in early August. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals totaled 9,000 metric tons last week, down from 10,000 tons the previous week but up from 8,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for the 2024/25 (October-September) marketing year have reached 1.672 million tons, down 1.9% from 1.704 million a year ago.

COFFEE

December Coffee is lower this morning but still consolidating near contract highs. Rabobank warned last week that December Coffee could see a sharp correction could if the Trump administration were to exempt coffee from the Brazilian tariff or if the US Administration reaches a trade deal with Brazil. However, there has been no mention that either of those events were in the works.

COTTON

Indian cotton consumption has slowed, with garment exporters reporting a sharp decline in orders from the US, which accounts for nearly 29% of India’s textile exports. Last week, India extended its exemptions from import duties on cotton to the end of December in an attempt to help support manufacturers that have been hit by the US tariffs. There was some suggestion that this may result in India importing more cotton from the US, but the sight of Indian PM Modi walking hand in hand with Russian Premier Putin in China over the weekend did not offer much comfort to US cotton sellers.

SUGAR

October Sugar has been in a sideways pattern for the past week. The International Sugar Organization said on Friday that it expects the 2025/26 (October-September) supply deficit to narrow to just 231,000 metric tons for from a deficit of 4.88 million in 2024/25 sharply, driven by a rise in global production which they expect to increase 3.1% to 180.59 million tons. Consumption is expected increase by a 0.4% to 180.82 million.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are higher, nearing all-time highs as expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Fed mount. Gold also continues to draw strong demand from central bank purchasing and geopolitical uncertainty regarding the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Silver futures are higher, following moves in gold as interest rate cut expectations from the Fed offered support for the white metal.

Copper futures are lower as the dollar gained but data from China struck a relatively upbeat tone. Purchasing managers surveys in China’s manufacturing sector showed an expansion of activity in August due to a rise in new orders, indicating healthier demand prospects for industrial metals.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are lower to kick off the week as markets look ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for August, which will be a key figure in shaping interest rate cut expectations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that he is confident that the Supreme Court will back President Trump’s use of emergency powers to implement tariffs after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most of the president’s tariffs were illegal.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are lower across the curve, tracking European bonds as markets await a week filled with key US data. Markets will remain highly sensitive to labor data, with Friday’s data likely being a decisive piece of information for interest rate expectations after July’s PCE inflation data offered no surprises. Weak data on the labor front, as well as weak readings from ISM surveys due this week could drag yields lower.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.