Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil is near unchanged this morning but is holding yesterday’s gains off news that Iran was limiting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ability to conduct inspections, which traders took as an indication that Iran remains undaunted despite the US attacks on their nuclear infrastructure last week. The US jobs report this morning came in better than expected, which eases some concerns about oil demand, but the threat that high tariffs will be reinstated once the 90-day pause ended on July 9 keeps some of those concerns alive. The trade deal announced with Vietnam yesterday offers some hope, and the possibility that more will could be announced in the coming days could provide support. The US is allowing ethane exports to China after they were suspended last month, which indicates some progress on that front. Yesterday’s EIA report was bearish, with crude oil and gasoline stocks increasing more than expected and more than the API report indicated.
NATURAL GAS
August Natural Gas is higher this morning with the trade’s expectations for a lower than average injection in the weekly EIA storage report later today providing some hope that the relentless build in supply has started to slow. For the report today, the Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for a net injection of +53 bcf into US supply last week (range +47 to +59). If this proves true, the build will be below the five-year average change of +78 bcf, which would be the first time it will have been below the average in 10 weeks. The heatwave across Europe has ended ,and average temperatures across northwest Europe are declining. The lower temperatures have reduced power consumption, with projected gas for power demand on the day ahead down 230 gigawatt hours per day at 1,766 GWh/d. In the US, the weather forecast continues to show predominately above normal temperatures across the lower 48, which will boost cooling demand. Some near or below normal temps emerge across a portion of the nation’s midsection in the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, but the about 2/3 of the lower 48 show above normal temps.
PRODUCTS
August ULSD is holding yesterday’s gains this morning. The fact that the EIA report was bullish against expectations and that current US distillate supply is the lowest it has been for this point in the season in at least six years offered underlying support. August RBOB is lower this morning following a modest rally yesterday. Traders may be disappointed with the drop in implied demand during the summer driving season.
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