Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down. CZ is unch. WZ is unch. KWZ is down. MWZ is up. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed but near $85. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are lower. US Midwest weather has been warm and dry. Some are lowering US soybean yield to 49.5. This could eventually push SX over 14.00. Midweek temps cool with rains possible the weekend. Weekly US crop ratings should decline. Trade looks for US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 270 vs USDA 260. This due to lower exports. Trade also looks for US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 230 vs USDA 245. This due to higher crush.
Corn futures are mixed. Russia does not appear to be willing to restart the Ukraine grain corridor deal. Prior to talks with Turkey, Russia bombed Ukraine port on the Danube. Some are dropping US corn yield to 171 but if demand does not increase that could be bearish. US corn harvest will start soon and will start hearing actual yields and if farmers sell or store. Weekly US crop ratings should decline. Trade looks for US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,287 vs USDA 2,202 with a 175 yield. This due to lower exports.
Wheat futures made new lows on talk of higher Russia supplies and record Russia wheat exports. US and EU wheat prices are on the decline to try to buy export demand. US south plains, mostly KS could see rains. Russia does not appear to be willing to restart the Ukraine grain corridor deal. Prior to talks with Turkey, Russia bombed Ukraine port on the Danube. Egypt bought 480 mt Russia wheat. Trade looks for US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 634 vs USDA 615. This due to lower feed use and higher imports.
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