Wkly Futures Market Summary For 6.23.2025

SOYBEANS

Despite some strength in bean oil from higher energy prices, the soy complex has not moved dramatically from Friday despite the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Crude oil started the week sharply higher but has pulled back, and the US dollar has risen moderately.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Soymeal futures prices broke to new contract lows early last week and finished the week in a consolidation pattern. The strength in bean oil had raised concerns about potential excess meal production, and prices needed to fall far enough to find new export demand. South American meal premiums have firmed slightly, which may allow the US to be more competitive in certain freight-advantaged directions

CORN

The strong rally in crude oil early Sunday night gave corn a boost at the opening, but the strength quickly faded, and prices are sinking once again. The hot temperatures across the central Midwest over the weekend are not expected to last. Rain is expected this week across Iowa and surrounding areas, with the warmth and humidity creating greenhouse-like conditions. Week 2 of the forecast shows normal temperatures and normal precipitation for all the Midwest.

WHEAT

Last week’s breakout in wheat turned the technical picture bullish, but with the HRW harvest ongoing, prices may see some pressure early this week. Harvest delays may be seen this week in central and eastern Kansas, but the rest of the southern Plains is expected to remain mostly dry. Winter wheat under drought dropped 1% to 14% last week, compared to 17% last year, and HRS under drought rose 2% to 22%. COT data will be delayed until this afternoon,.

CATTLE

Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report can be considered slightly friendly due to the lower-than-expected placements (an 8-year low), but last week’s technical action was disappointing for the bulls. Marketings were the 2nd smallest in the previous 5 years, and the lighter weight breakdowns suggest some herd rebuilding. In addition, pasture conditions have improved significantly in the southern Plains, with drought nearly completely erased, and that raises the possibility of fewer cattle placed in feedlots this summer.

HOGS

August hogs consolidated the 2nd half of last week, but the overall uptrend remains in place. The cash index was higher Friday and expected to gain again today. Hog open interest continues to hold near its all-time highs as funds hang on to their large net long position.

MILK CLASS III

July Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly loss after falling to a 10-week low on Friday. The USDA reported that summer heat is beginning to affect milk production nationwide.

ENERGIES

August Crude oil opened sharply higher overnight in the wake of the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend but sold off immediately and was back inside Friday’s range by Midnight.

Gasoline and diesel prices opened sharply higher overnight in the wake of the US military strikes in Iran, but like crude oil, they eventually moved back inside Friday’s range as the market was waiting to see what would happen next, specifically whether Iran would attempt to block or mine the Strait of Hormuz.

August Natural Gas is lower this morning after reaching its highest level since April 7 on Friday. Unlike crude oil, natural gas prices have not seen a rally off the US military strikes against Iran over the weekend.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is higher, driven by safe-haven demand following the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Investors are closely monitoring the situation for any potential response from Tehran, which could include threats to US personnel in the region or disruptions to global oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Market attention is also shifting to upcoming US economic data, such as existing home sales and PMI figures for new insights into the economy’s trajectory.

COCOA

West Africa continues to see regular, active rainfall, which at this point is viewed as beneficial for cocoa production, especially for the main crop harvest that begins in October. It is important that the region sees sun mixed with the rain to avoid crop and tree disease, but so far there have been very few reports of problems, and the market action indicates that the traders believe conditions are improving.

COFFEE

September Coffee opened below Friday’s low overnight and subsequently moved to higher on the day. So far, the open has been the low of the day. There is a threat of frost for some of Brazil’s main arabica growing region early this week, which may provide reason for a bounce. World Weather Service expects a few patches of “soft frost” but does not expect it to be enough to do any permanent damage.

COTTON

December Cotton has traded in relatively wide ranges over the past three sessions, possibly due to the volatility in the energy markets. Cotton saw a significant bounce on Friday off a strong export sales reports but closed back near the lows of the day, much as it did on Wednesday. The export sales report on Friday showed net sales of 83,198 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and another 274,891 for 2025/26 for a total of 358,089 for the week ending June 12.

SUGAR

October Sugar is higher for the second strait session after falling to its lowest level since March 2023 last week. At last week’s low the market had dropped 2.26 cents (12%) from its May 13 high and 3.56 (18%) from its March 18 high, and it may have been too much to ask for the market to keep pushing lower on expectations for strong crops in 2025/26. Much has been made of the early start for Indian’s monsoon, which is expected to significantly boost their sugar cane production.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are lower as investors seek the dollar over the yellow metal amid the growing conflict in the Middle East after the US struck multiple Iranian Nuclear sites over the weekend.

Silver futures traded sideways as traders absorb the developments in the Middle East. The dollar strengthened overnight, pressuring silver prices.

Copper futures fell as the escalating tensions in the Middle East weigh on sentiment.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are lower in overnight trade as markets remain cautious amid the growing conflict in the Middle East after the US struck multiple Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. President Trump said late Saturday that the US had struck Iran’s three main nuclear enrichment facilities, claiming the sites had been “totally obliterated.” He threatened Iran with more attacks if the country did not quickly seek peace talks

INTEREST RATES

Futures edged higher across the curve, with yields little changed as investors monitor the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Focus this week on the economic front will be data Friday on the US core personal consumption expenditures price index for May. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could provide insights on the trajectory for interest rates. In, investors are looking ahead to fresh economic data, including US existing home sales and PMI reports, for insights into the underlying strength of the economy.

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