Wkly Futures Market Summary For 5.27.2025

SOYBEANS

There was no major market-moving news over the holiday weekend for the soy complex. As a result, prices are picking up where they left off on Friday, with beans and bean oil slightly higher and soymeal slightly lower. Rain fell over the weekend in parts of Nebraska and the southern Bean Belt, while the central and northern Belt remained dry. The same general trend is expected to continue this week, with the Gulf Coast states experiencing the heaviest precipitation.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The holiday weekend did not bring any major developments for the soy complex, and prices started the week off in a subdued fashion. The US weather outlook is generally favorable, and biofuel subsidy uncertainty continues to keep bean oil prices volatile. Meal prices pulled back over the last couple of sessions after testing the upper end of the recent range last week.

CORN

The corn market is starting weak this morning due to a favorable weather outlook and spillover weakness from wheat. The southern and Southwest Corn Belt saw beneficial moisture over the weekend, while the central and northern Belts were mostly dry. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will stay wet this week, but most of the Midwest will see dry conditions except for parts of the southern Plains. No extreme heat is forecast over the next 2 weeks, and the current outlook shows little reason for any significant weather premium at this time.

WHEAT

The market is under pressure this morning after significant rainfall fell in the southern and southwestern Plains over the weekend, and China’s dry northern Plains wheat areas are forecast to have improved precipitation chances. Rains across the southern Plains will end late this week, and then a drier pattern will follow into June. The northern Plains will see above normal temperatures in the 6 – 10 day timeframe.

CATTLE

Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report was considered mostly neutral, and this morning’s opening is more likely to take its cue from the very strong stock market despite the placement number hitting a 5-year low. US Beef in Cold Storage at the end of April fell 2% from the prior month to 418.15 million lbs, compared to 425.17 in March and 426.37 in April a year ago. COT data showed Managed Money traders cut their net long in live cattle to a 3-week low but increased their net long in feeder cattle to an 8-week high.

HOGS

July hogs slipped lower on Friday and pulled back, closing lower for the 5th straight session. The correction of the sharp rally since early April is ongoing, and July has filled the upside gap from the beginning of the month. COT data showed Managed Money traders increased their net longs by more than 10,600 contracts to a new 3-month high. US Pork in Cold Storage at the end of April totaled 455.80 million lbs versus 499.31 in April a year ago and 409.47 in March. Pork Bellies in storage totaled 59.58 million lbs versus 54.54 in March and 76.69 in April a year ago.

MILK CLASS III

June Class III milk finished with a mild weekly gain after reaching a contract high on Friday. The USDA reported that milk production has been steady in the East and Central regions as spring flush ends, while the West region is seeing a decline in output.

ENERGIES

July Crude Oil is slightly lower this morning but is inside the range of the past three weeks. OPEC+ meets this week, and they are expected to increase their production target for July another 411,000 barrels per day, as they did for May and June. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US oil rigs in operation down 8 rigs to 465 last week. This was down from 497 rigs a year ago and above the five-year average of 447. It is also the lowest since November, 2021.

July Natural Gas is higher this morning as a gradual warmup in the eastern half of the US that suggests seasonal cooling demand may finally start to pick up. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were down 2 rigs to 98 last week, down from 99 a year ago and below the five-year average of 113. Total rigs in operation were down 10 to 566 last week, the lowest since November 19, 2021, mainly due to the drop in oil rigs.

DOLLAR INDEX

The US dollar index is higher amid the US-EU trade developments.

COCOA

After the collapse on Friday, the cocoa market may be seeing some support today from another slow week for Ivory Coast port arrivals, which at 20,000 metric tons last week were down from 22,000 the previous week and 32,000 for the same week a year ago. Cumulative arrivals have reached 1.560 million tons, still up 9.1% from a year ago, but the slow start for the Midcrop suggests the drier than normal conditions this winter and the slow start to the rainy season have done their damage. However, conditions have improved in recent weeks, and this points to stronger production later in the season.

COFFEE

July Coffee appears to be losing ground on ideas that the Brazilian harvest is not as bad as had been feared. Over the past few weeks various analysts have increased their forecasts for 2025/26 production from their previous assessments. Last week, USDA FAS’ initial assessments for 2025/26 called for larger crops in Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, primarily due to higher robusta production.

COTTON

The cotton market is drawing some support this morning after President Trump postponed the 50% tariffs on the European Union that he had threatened to level last Friday. The stock market reacted positively, and any positive feedback from the US or global economy improves the outlook for cotton consumption.

SUGAR

The sugar market has seen pressure in recent weeks from increases in production forecasts for top producers Brazil, India, Thailand. The UNICA report on Brazilian Center-South sugar production for the first half of May is due out this week, and the general consensus seems to be that the heavy rains in April that slow the startup of crushing operations in the first part of May.

PRECIOUS METALS

June gold futures fell sharply after President Trump announced on Sunday that the US would delay imposing 50% tariffs on the EU from June 1st to July 9th to allow time for trade negotiations. Following the announcement, the EU announced it would speed up tariff talks with the US, easing trade war concerns. The news also supported the dollar, further pressuring gold prices.

Silver futures fell on reduced safe haven demand and a stronger dollar following the recent trade news between the US and EU.

July copper futures are lower, pressured by a stronger dollar and overall trade uncertainty despite the recent developments between the US and EU.

EQUITIES

Index futures are sharply higher after President Trump announced on Sunday that the US would delay imposing 50% tariffs on the EU from June 1^st to July 9^th to allow time for trade negotiations. Following the announcement, the EU said it would speed up tariff talks between the US, easing trade war concerns.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are higher across the curve, supported by easing trade tensions and reports that Japanese authorities are considering adjusting their debt plan after a sell-off that drove bond yields to their highest levels in decades. The potential for lower issuance of Japanese bonds supported US Treasurys, as the lower supply of Japanese bonds could bring more investors over to the US bond market.

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