Wkly Futures Market Summary For 5.19.2025

SOYBEANS

The soy complex is off to a modestly firmer start, though largely favorable US weather is likely to cap upside early in the week. Weekend rainfall totals in Argentina’s Buenos Aires growing region reached 6 to 10 inches, triggering localized flooding. Damage assessments are underway, but some soybean fields will likely be negatively impacted.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The new week began with a modest bounce in soybean flat prices, but soymeal continues to lag, pinned between firm consumption-driven support on the downside and heavy cash market resistance above. Global crush activity remains a headwind, with strong crush rates reported across Argentina, Brazil, and the US, collectively maintaining pressure on meal values.

CORN

Old crop corn futures are seeing a modest rebound this morning, with new crop contracts also slightly higher after bouncing off last week’s lows in overnight trade. A sharp drop in the US dollar overnight is likely contributing to the early strength, along with support from speculative positioning. The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report revealed that managed money funds sold nearly 100,000 corn contracts last week, pushing their net position into a short for the first time since October 2024.

WHEAT

Wheat markets are posting a modest rebound this morning, supported by last week’s improved technical outlook and a record-large speculative short position. Managed money traders now hold a combined net short of over 207,000 contracts in Chicago and Kansas City wheat, a new all-time high, raising the potential for a short-covering rally. Last week’s midweek reversal in both markets signaled a possible shift in momentum, and despite Friday’s pullback, the technical tone remains constructive. Open interest changed slightly in both contracts on Friday, suggesting traders are still cautious.

CATTLE

Live cattle and feeders closed higher on Friday, but following the significant downturn last week, the bounce was a bit anemic, and the bear camp remains in control. COT data showed a modest increase in the net long position in both live cattle and feeders. China’s April pork imports were down 6.7% year-over-year. Moody’s credit downgrade has pushed the stock market lower, which could put cattle prices under pressure this morning.

HOGS

July hogs closed near unchanged Friday after making a new high for the move. Prices saw steady gains last week after the bullish gap higher on Monday. The trend remains strong. The US dollar is weaker this morning, and there is optimism that China may return as a US pork buyer following the reduction of tariffs last week. Commitments of Traders data showed a more than 10,000 contract increase in the net long position in hogs, which now stands above 81,000 contracts.

MILK CLASS III

June Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly gain after reaching a new contract high on Friday. The USDA reported that nationwide milk production remains generally strong

ENERGIES

July Crude Oil is near unchanged this morning and is holding last week’s lows despite a lower open expected for the stock market on the Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US oil rigs in operation were down 1 rig to 473 last week.

July Natural Gas gapped lower overnight and fell to its lowest level since April 21, as US gas supply continues to rebuild and we settle into the low-demand season. Last week’s EIA report showed US storage 1.9% above the five year average. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were down 1 rig to 100 last week.

DOLLAR INDEX

The June US dollar index is down nearly a percent as growing concerns about the fiscal outlook of the US weigh on the greenback, which fell against most major currencies. On Friday, a large global credit rating agency downgraded the US’s credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.

COCOA

July Cocoa prices have eased back this morning after widespread rains fell across Ivory Coast and Ghana over the weekend. World Weather Service said the increase in rainfall also helped to bring temperatures closer to normal.

COFFEE

July Coffee is trading inside last week’s range this morning as the market barely holds last week’s lows. The market has been under pressure recently from revisions higher in Brazilian crop estimates for 2025 and from what appears to be some harvest pressure emanating from Vietnam and Brazil.

COTTON

July Cotton is higher this morning despite a lower open expected for the stock market and lower crude oil prices overnight. It may have helped that China’s factory output grew 6.1% from a year earlier in April, which while down from 7.7% growth in March beat the forecast 5.5% rise in a Reuters poll.

SUGAR

July Sugar tried to extend last week’s decline overnight but turned higher this morning. German farmers have reduced sugar beet plantings for harvesting in autumn 2025 by 6.6% percent on the year to around 408,500 hectares, German’s national statistics office said today.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are sharply higher, with June gold futures up nearly 2% as demand for safe-haven assets returns amid a downgrade in US credit rating and an increase in concerns over the US economic outlook.

Silver futures were up, trailing gold in gains as the increase in safe-haven demand lifted prices for the white metal. Silver will likely benefit from any rise in gold.

July copper futures held around $4.65 Monday morning as a large supply of US copper has limited gains.

EQUITIES

Stock Index futures are lower across all indexes as investors digest a recent downgrade of US credit and assess the fiscal outlook of the US’s growing debt situation.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are lower across the curve after Friday’s credit rating cut due to rising government debt. Despite the recent rating downgrade, significant selling of US Treasurys is unlikely, as most investment mandates do not require AAA ratings for US Treasurys. The rating cut does not come as a surprise, as two other ratings firms had previously downgraded the US’s rating, and the present budgetary situation has largely been priced in over recent days.

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