Wkly Futures Market Summary For 4.7.2025

SOYBEANS

The soy complex weakened overnight due to heavy macro market selling, but prices rebounded this morning. Tariff panic seen late last week seems to have peaked earlly this week as the US stock market and crude oil prices tumbled. The break in crude oil has put pressure on bean oil, while meal has moved down into a major long-term support area.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The US meal market closed at new contract lows on Friday after China’s retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US goods. Prices have rebounded to start the week from headlines regarding a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China, which the White House has refuted. Meal is also seeing support from reports Argentine soy crusher Vicentin has halted operations at their crushing plants amid ongoing bankruptcy concerns and problems paying workers. This could slow soy product exports out of Argentina and tighten global supplies, as Argentina is the #1 world soymeal exporter. Another bullish supply factor is coming from heavy flooding in the Ohio Valley and southeast Midwest over the weekend, with reports of 5 to 15 inches of rain causing power outages and potential lost crush capacity in that region.

CORN

The market fared much better than beans last Friday as the China tariffs are only a minor factor for corn. A Republican congressman from Missouri, Jason Smith, head of the influential Ways and Means Committee, will head to Brazil next week to try to open up markets for US products, starting with US ethanol. Ag Secretary Rollins also said last week she would schedule trips overseas to push for broader access to US Ag products.

WHEAT

The wheat market is steady this morning as the extreme outside market pressure peaked overnight. Some support is expected today from heavy flooding in some SRW areas in the eastern Midwest, where rain totals of 4-15 inches were reported. In addition, cold temperatures as low as the upper teens were reported in Southwest areas of the Hard Red Wheat belt, and this adds to the list of recent crop stress events from heavy winds, dryness, and now the cold. Beneficial rains fell across Oklahoma and Texas wheat areas over the weekend. Moisture chances will be limited across the Plains for the next 2 weeks.

CATTLE

China’s retaliatory tariff and extreme bearishness in the macro markets sent the cattle complex limit down on Friday. Friday’s gap lower resulted in a significant change to the technical picture in live cattle and feeders, and the risk is high for an accelerated selloff after the Commitments of Trader’s report showed funds still holding a near record long on feeders and an 8-week high in longs in live cattle, reaching over 142,000 contracts. Macro markets were extremely weak overnight but have recovered somewhat this morning. However, Friday’s limit down close will likely prompt another gap lower on today’s opening as funds and long specs rush for the exit.

HOGS

June hogs gapped lower Friday and closed limit down after China’s retaliatory tariff announcement, hitting their lowest price since September last year. The loss of Chinese demand is significant, and prices must fall low enough to encourage other price-sensitive buyers to make up the difference. China has yet to show any indications of reaching out for talks, and until they do, rallies will be tough to sustain.

MILK CLASS III

May Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly loss after falling to a new contract low on Friday.

ENERGIES

Nearby crude oil prices extended their selloff overnight and fell to their lowest level since April 2021. President Trump showed no signs of backing off from the tariffs over the weekend, and global stock markets extended their declines. Imports of oil, gas, and refined products were exempted from the tariffs, but the biggest concern is reduced demand if a trade war sparks a global recession. Saudi Arabia cut its oil prices to Asia for the month of May by $2.30 to plus-$1.20 against the Oman/Dubai average. This is their lowest level in four months and is the biggest one-month decline in more than two years.

May Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since February 14 overnight but is back near unchanged this morning. On Friday, Asian spot LNG prices remained at their lowest level in nearly six months, and China’s retaliatory tariffs announce on Friday further pressured demand expectations. Prices in Europe were lower overnight on a warmer weather trend and concerns about weaker energy demand ahead. The EU is preparing for countermeasures in response to the new tariffs, but they may not have much of a choice when it comes to buying LNG from the US, and they need rebuild supply this summer.

DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower today. The fundamentals for the greenback remain bearish.

COCOA

May Cocoa is slightly higher this morning after falling to its lowest level since April 1 overnight. The selloff in the stock market finally got to cocoa on Friday, but a low Ivory Coast arrivals number this morning reminded the market of the expected slowdown in production this season. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals for the week ending April 6 were estimated at 1,500 metric tons, down from 7,000 the previous week and 3,000 for the same week a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for the 2024/25 marketing year have reached 1.442 million tons, still ahead of 1.304 million a year ago but behind the five year average of 1.642 million. The surplus relative to last year is narrowing, and the deficit to the five-year average is widening.

COFFEE

May Coffee broke below a two-month consolidation on Friday and extended those losses overnight, as the steep decline in the stock market and high US tariffs threaten to lower demand. The US is the world’s largest consumer of coffee, and domestic prices could see double digit increases with the imposition of the new tariffs. Vietnam is facing 46% tariffs, and they are the third largest supplier of coffee to the US. Vietnam exported 493,000 metric tons of coffee in during the January-March timeframe, down 15.8% from the same period last year, according to government data. March exports totaled 183,000 tons, down 2.7% from last year. The Brazilian real fell sharply on Friday to its lowest level since March 12.

COTTON

Cotton is higher this morning following a collapse on Friday to its lowest level in almost five years. The market sold off hard last week in the wake of the announcement of new US tariffs, including a 47% one against Vietnam, which has been the one of the biggest buyers of US cotton for the past couple of years. China announcing its own tariffs against US goods on Friday widened those concerns, but their purchases of US cotton have slowed considerably in recent years as they have switched to Brazilian cotton. The bounce overnight may have been the cotton market’s attempt to buy acres from corn, which has managed to hold its own against the tariff news.

SUGAR

May Sugar fell to its lowest level since March 11 overnight as continued declines in equities and crude oil and fears of a global recession painted an uncertain demand outlook. Lower energy prices reduce the incentive for cane crushers to divert their production from sugar to ethanol production. The drop in the Brazilian real on Friday further increases the incentive to sell sugar, which is exported, versus ethanol, which is consumed domestically. Brazilian government data showed they exported 1.853 million tons of sugar in March, down from 2.676 million a year ago.

PRECIOUS METALS

June gold futures briefly fell below the $3,000 per ounce level on Monday, marking its third straight day of losses. Profit-taking and margin calls in other markets led investors to sell some of their precious metals holdings. A growing trade war sparked a sharp downturn in financial markets, raising concerns that it could weaken the global economy.

May silver futures were lower in the overnight trade. However, prices were able to recover and are now higher. Volatility remains elevated as investors continue to evaluate the effects of President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

Copper futures declined to just above the $4.03 per pound on Monday, deepening last week’s over 14% drop to its lowest level in nine weeks. Top consumer China retaliated Friday with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, effective April 10, opting not to negotiate.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are lower for a third day on Monday as the White House pressed forward with aggressive tariffs on key trading partners.

The gaps down on the daily charts for the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones charts have some of the earmarks of being exhaustion gaps and not continuation gaps.

INTEREST RATES

Flight to safety buying is coming into futures at the front of the yield curve as it appears that the Federal Open Market Committee will more aggressively move to accommodation this year. The FOMC will likely lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points four times in 2025.

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