Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 10 cents and near 12.46. SMH is near 366.9. BOH is near 48.80. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.60. WH is up 3 cents and near 6.14. KWH is up 4 cents and near 6.28. MWH is up 3 cents and near 7.10. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton and meats are higher. All in front of US CPI inflation data. Market est 3.2 pct yoy vs 3.1 last month. Lower percent could offer dovish outlook for Fed, increase chance for lower rates and push US Dollar lower.
CH is near 4.60. Trade est US weekly export sales at 400-1,000 mt vs 367 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 12 pct vs ly. Stocks were highest since April, 2023. Margins remain negative. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 2,105 vs 2,131 in Dec. Average trade est for Brazil corn is 125 mmt vs USDA 129, CONAB est Brazil crop at 117.6. Trade est Argentina at 54.8 mmt vs 34 ly. Rosario GE est Argentina crop at 59 mmt. Trade est Dec 1 US corn stocks at 12,050 mil bu vs 10,813 ly.
SH is near 12.46. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-900 mt vs 201 last week. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 243 vs 245 in Dec. Trade est Brazil soybean crop at 156.2 mmt vs USDA 161. CONAB est the crop at 155.0. Trade est Argentina crop at 48.8 vs 25 ly. Rosario GE est the crop at 52.0. Trade est Dec 1 US soybean stocks at 2,975 mil bu vs 3,021 ly. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher.
WH is near 6.14. Trade est US weekly export sales at 200-450 mt vs 131 last week. US, EU and Black Sea temps turn colder. Few concerned about winterkill. Trade est US 2024 winter wheat acres at 35.8 mil bu vs 36.7 ly. Trade est Dec 1 US wheat stocks at 1,387 mil bu vs 1,312 ly.
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