Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 5 cents near 13.67. SMZ is near 400.7. BOZ is near 69.16. CZ is down 1 cent and near 6.80. WZ is up 7 cents and near 8.56. KWZ is up 9 cents and near 9.53. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.64.
US wheat export prices are too high versus Russia. Matif wheat futures are down 50 cents from high. Wheat prices remain volatile. Risk management almost impossible due to lower trade volume, limited importer coverage and uncertain Russia exports vs higher supply. Mpls wheat higher as World needs protein.
Soybean futures are trending lower. Soymeal is lower on lower cash basis and concern over culling of US poultry due to bird flu. Soyoil is higher on low US stocks. Palmoil has turned higher following higher soyoil. Still some concern about Asian vegoil demand. Trade could see lower soybean futures due to drop in export demand and favorable South America weather. US soybean crusher margins favorably high.
Corn futures are trending slowly lower. Drop in demand for US export offers resistance. US SW basis is strong and offsets weather river basis. US farmer is not selling. Matif corn futures are lower on talk that Ukraine export corridor could remain open. Corn global price volatility is up and needs more clarification on Ukraine exports.
Global weather is mixed with too much rain in Australia, Russia and Ukraine and not enough in US plains and Argentina. SE US plains could see rain. Argentina has rain in forecast.
US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, sugar and cotton are lower.
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