Written Commentary
US Dollar Likely to Recover
October 8, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. On Tuesday, Wheat found support from higher Crude and Gold following Iran attack on Israel. Managed funds were active buyers of corn. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. US dockworkers remain on strike from Maine to Texas.
SOYBEANS
Overnight futures are higher on more short covering. Mato Grosso Brazil could see needed rains for planting. Argentina could also see needed rains. China is closed for holiday. US Midwest 2 week forecast is warm and dry which should help harvest. Brazil farmer increased farmer selling. China is absent from Brazil soybean market. USDA announced 120 mt US soybeans to unknown. StoneX est US soybean crop at 4,613 mil bu vs 4.575 previous and USDA 4,586. Technically, SX has now traded over 38 pct of retracement from 12.28 high to 9.55 low. Nearby board crush margins continue to firm.
CORN
Corn futures are higher with CZ at 3 month high. Argentina could see needed rains. Brazil is dry but rains are forecast in week 2. China is on holiday. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest. USDA announced 195 mt US corn to unknown. StoneX est US corn crop at 15,222 mil bu vs 15,127 previous and USDA 15,186. Technically, CZ tested the 100 DMA for the first time since June 14. CZ also traded over the 38 pct retracement from 4.91 high to 3.85 low. 50 pct retracement of that move is 4.41. Most of corn news is negative except the price action.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are higher. Wheat futures may have found unexpected support from short covering after Iran attacked Israel. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. Russia prices have firmed which is supporting futures. Russia farmer selling has slowed. WZ is over 6.00. In the past, this price has found selling. Key WZ resistance is near July high of 6.15.
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