Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. Crude is higher and near $61. Crude watching US/China trade talk optimism. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are slightly higher. Gold is higher. A lot of unknowns; US/China talks, tariffs vs deals, money flow, Mondays USDA report and 2025 weather. US rains south and dry north. Midwest rains next week. EU rains south and dry north. Russia adding rains. China wheat areas are dry.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.45 which could be midpoint of a range before Mondays USDA report. Brazil farmer increase selling soybeans. Dalian soybean and soymeal were unch. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. BON rallied following higher Crude. US soybean export commit is up 13 pct ly and USDA up 8. China April soybean imports were 6.1 mmt vs 8.6 ly. BAGE increase soybean crop to 50 mmt vs USDA 49. Crop is 45 pct harvested. Canada canola exports at 7.9 mmt vs 4.6 ly. Canada March 31 canola stocks were 5.9 mmt vs 9.6 ly. Trade is looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 369 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 362. 24/25 key is US exports. Trade is also looking for US 2025 soybean crop at 4,338 mil bu vs 4,366 ly.
CORN
CN is near 4.51. CN-CZ spread is now near 10. Weekly US export sales were better than expected. Total commit is up 26 pct vs ly and USDA up 11. Brazil futures are lower. Argentina corn export price cheapest. Argentina harvest is 38 pct with 42 pct crop rated excellent vs 38 last week and 18 ly. Ukraine corn prices inverted with new crop below US. Trade is looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,443 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. Trade is also looking for US 2025 corn crop at 15,757 mil bu vs 14,867 ly. Matif futures lower due to France rans and lower cash prices.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.32. KWN is near 5.27. MWN is near 6.03. Rains are helping US HRW crop but could be adding quality concerns to SRW. US north plains, China and Australia are dry. US wheat export commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 16. Canada wheat exports 20. 8 mmt vs 18.7 ly, March 31 Canda wheat stocks 15.4 mmt vs 15.6 ly. Trade is looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863. Trade is also looking for US 2025 wheat crop at 1,885 mil bu vs 1,971 ly. Matif wheat futures lower on SW EU rains and better Black Sea crop outlook.
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