Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Wet US weather could slow corn plantings. US will not tax except China owned vessel the vessel tax. Crude is sharply lower. US Dollar is sharply lower. US stocks are lower. Trade is worried about US Fed will be slow in lowering rates. Gold is sharply higher at 3,400 as money floods to safe haven. Russia has resume missile attacks on Ukraine. Pope Francis has died.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.50. SN could be near the higher end of a 1.00 range. China Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Slowly, World soybean trade is changing from US to Brazil. One US owner of a Brazil affiliate business was told Americans were no longer welcomed into Brazil. Global demand for US soybean, soymeal and soyoil exports, US summer weather and US biofuel policy will be key to futures price direction. US soybean export total commit is near 46.7 mmt vs 41.2 ly. USDA goal is 49.67 mmt vs 46.13 ly. Soymeal total commit is near 11.8 mmt vs 10.7 ly. USDA goal is 15.79 mmt vs 14.61 ly. This could help SN gain on SX.
CORN
CN is near 4.93. South US and east rains could slow plantings there. US corn export total commit is near 56.5 mmt vs 44.6 ly. USDA goal is 64.77 mt vs 58.23 ly. Some feel 5.00 could be CN resistance. CN-CZ spread could see more downside as US exports slow due to higher SA supply/exports.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.62. KWN is near 5.69. MWN is near 6.19. Managed funds are short a record 450,000 US and EU contracts. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. EU model has rains for dry US plains. Russia forecast is for scattered light rains. US futures in carry with Managed funds record short. US cash basis levels are inverted. US wheat export total commit is 21.4 mmt vs 18.7 ly. USDA goal is 22.32 mmt vs 19.24 ly.
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