Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Latest GFS weather model is now wet for US Midwest next week. SN is down 8 cents and near 14.54. SX is down 18 cents and near 13.55. SMN is near 371.8. BON is near 64.25. CN is up 1 cent and near 6.69. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.71. WN is up 2 cents and near 6.64. KWN is up 1 cents and near 6.13. MWN is up 6 cents and near 7.54.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Trade watching for Fed comment on economy and inflation.
GFS weather model suggest dry/warm US Midwest weather this week. Now next week wet. On again off again GFS model for next week is whipping the market around. EU model delayed.
This weeks warm/dry Midwest weather suggest lower Mondays USDA corn and soybean ratings. Current ratings do not suggest USDA corn yield near 179.5 and soybean 50.8 or US HRS est. SN near 3 week lows, SMN lowest since March 31 USDA report, BON 2 week low.
No word on new China buying new crop soybeans. US fob $566 vs Argentina $529.
Soymeal prices continue to slide lower on lower demand. US fob $422 vs Argentina $401
China Dalian grain and oilseed futures lower following US lower trade. Unch India import tax negative. China hog herd up 23 pct in May, sow herd up 19 pct. Lower corn buying due to port congestion.
Argentina corn near $247 fob vs US 295. Brazil will allow GMO corn imports. S Russia , Kazakhstan, Volga basin could see hot/dry sukhovey late this week and early next week.
There is talk of record US HRW feeding in west crop area. No new export demand. SRW ratings high. Could see historic drop in US HRS, PNW white wheat and US Durum 2021 crop size.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 SRW Wheat; 4,000 corn; 8,000 soybeans; 3,000 soyoil and 2,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 20,000 SRW wheat long 267,000 corn, 126,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal and 73,000 soyoil.
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