MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 3 cents and near 13.14. SMZ is near 417.8. BOZ is near 54.48. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.90. WZ is up 1 cent and near 5.81. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 6.67. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.32. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower.
Soybean futures are higher. North Brazil forecast is dry for the rest of October. Long range Argentina forecast adds needed rains. There may be continued technical buying in SMZ. SMZ-SMH spread moved up to +9.00. Tightening of soybean spread overnight suggest higher expectation into today’s sales report. Sales are expected near 950-1,625 mt vs 1,056 last week.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Weekly ethanol production was up 3 pct from last week and 2 pct from last year. Stocks are lowest since Dec, 2021. Resistance is still near 5.10-5.20 due to slow demand for US exports. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 500-1,000 mt vs 910 last week. Ukraine seems to be struggling to get exports moving. Increase difficult logistics in Brazil create some short term window of opportunity for improvement in US export demand.
Wheat futures are mixed. There are unconfirmed rumors of China interest in US HRW/HRS wheat combo’s. India domestic wheat prices are near 8 month high. Argentina export forecast is dropping below USDA guess. Feed wheat trading to Asia at $272 against recent corn trades at $252 makes wheat look expensive. Russia continues to offer wheat for export at below $230 without buyers. Still, large global fund short and seasonals do not argue for lower futures prices.
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