Weak Durable Goods Report

download PDF


Major U.S. stock index futures remain near record highs. Traders have been encouraged by the Federal Reserve, which said it doesn’t plan to pull back on supportive policies in the near term.

However, stock futures are under some pressure today with lingering concerns over the global economic growth outlook.

The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting today.

Durable  goods orders in June increased 0.8% when a gain of 2.1% was expected.

The 9:00 central time July consumer confidence index is anticipated to be 124.9 and the 9:00 July Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index is estimated to be 21.

The fundamentals and technical aspects remain positive for U.S. stock index futures.


The U.S. dollar index is lower today but remains near a four-month high as demand for safe-haven assets remains strong.

In the weeks ahead it is likely that the flight to quality influence that the greenback has enjoyed recently will dominate over other market influences.

The euro currency is higher after a report showed loans to households in the euro area increased 4.0% in June 2021, following a 3.9% increase in the previous month. This was the largest increase in household lending since December 2008.  Also, credit to companies was up 1.9%, which was the same pace as in the previous month. Private sector credit growth, including households and non-financial corporations, increased 3.0% in June from 2.7% in May.

The Confederation of British Industry’s distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the U.K. came in at +23 in July 2021, which is slightly above market forecasts of +21.


Futures are higher on  prospects of slowing global economic growth.

There were additional gains for futures when the weak U.S. durable goods report was released.

The Treasury will auction five-year notes.

The interest rate futures markets have been telegraphing since May clues about the state of the global economy with the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattening for several months. Shorter-dated yields have been steady, while longer-dated yields have declined. A flattening yield curve suggests a slower rate of economic growth in the future.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its regularly scheduled policy meeting today and Wednesday. A statement from the FOMC will be released at 1:00 on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 1:30.

No major policy surprises are likely at the meeting.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now