Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. equity futures are mostly higher as Wall Street kicks off a big week for tech earnings.
Of the 123 companies in the S&P 500 that have released results so far, 85.4% of them have reported earnings above analysts’ estimates, with Refinitiv IBES data now predicting a 33.9% increase in profit growth.
Durable goods orders in March increased 0.5% when a gain of 2.0% was expected.
The 9:30 central time April Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index is anticipated to be 27.5.
The long term outlook for stock index futures remains positive.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is a little higher and the euro currency is a little lower, although the greenback earlier today declined to an eight-week low before a recovery.
The euro currency fell on news that the Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany improved to 96.8 in April, the highest since June 2019, but was below market expectations of 97.8. Companies have become less optimistic about the coming six-month period, as the expectations component fell to 99.5 points from a revised 100.3 points in March.
The Japanese yen is a little lower but remains near a seven-week high against the U.S. dollar. Recent gains in the yen were linked to safe haven flows.
The index of leading economic indicators in Japan, which is a gauge of the economy a few months ahead was revised lower to 98.7 in February from a preliminary reading of 99.7, and after a downwardly revised 98.1 a month earlier. However, this was still the highest reading since October 2018.
Investors are now looking ahead to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision tomorrow.
The BoJ is expected to keep its monetary policy on hold at the end of the two-day meeting, after last month tweaking its easing policies.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The Treasury will auction two-year and five-year notes today.
The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to hold interest rates and bond purchases steady at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In his most recent comments, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he anticipates output and job growth will accelerate in the months ahead, but also reiterated that the Fed plans to wait until the economy’s recovery is complete before it will raise interest rates.
GOLD AND SILVER
Most major central banks are likely to keep their accommodation for longer, which is a longer-term bullish influence for the precious metals.
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