Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Dec 8.23
December 8, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is down 1 cent and near 14.48. SMF is near 413.3. BOF is near 73.41. CH is unch and near 6.81. WH is down 4 cents and near 8.60. KWH is down 1 cent and near 9.52. MWH is up 2 cents and near 9.75.
Midterm US election day. Vote!! US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower.
Corn futures are marginally lower. Season to date US corn exports are down 27 pct from last year. Some look for USDA to lower US corn exports on tomorrows report. South America and Ukraine corn export prices remain below US. Brazil and may be Argentina midterm weather forecast suggest better chances for rain. Annual USDA baseline US crop outlook was released. It is for budget purposes but USDA looks for gradual increase in US yield from 181.5 in 2023 to 199.5 in 2032. This would increase carryout from 1,172 to 2,707 and lower farm prices from 6.80 to 4.30. Surprise was USDA does not show increase in ethanol use but big increase in feed/residual.
Soybean futures are marginally lower. Season to date US soybean exports are down 10 pct from last year. Some look for USDA to lower US soybean exports on tomorrows report. South America soybean and soymeal export prices remain below US. Brazil and may be Argentina midterm weather forecast suggest better chances for rain. Annual USDA baseline US crop outlook was released. It is for budget purposes but USDA looks for gradual increase in US yield from 52.0 in 2023 to 56.5 in 2032. Increase in demand offsets the higher yield and keeps US carryout near 215 but farm prices drop from 14.00 to 10.30. Surprise was USDA does not show increase in soyoil biofuel use despite big increase in crush capacity and fact B100 can be used as alternative to higher prices diesel. China 12 month soybean imports were down 19 pct from lay at 90.6 mmt, China will need to buy 8.6 mmt soybean per month vs 4.4 in Oct to reach USDA goal of 98.0.
Wheat futures are mixed. Russia export prices remain below US. US HRW Is $75 above Germany and $100 above Russia. US SRW is $35 above French and $5 above Russia. Russia Oct wheat exports were 4.5 mmt. They are on pace to export 42 mmt. Some could see 44-47. Argentina is dry. Their crop is rated only 9 pct G/E. US south plains are dry. USDA rated US WW crop 30 pct G/E vs 28 lw and 48 ly. Annual USDA baseline US crop outlook was released. It is for budget purposes but USDA looks for gradual increase in US yield from 46.5 in 2023 to 52.7 in 2032. This would increase carryout from 576 to 755 and lower farm prices from 9.20 to 5.70. USDA does show increase in food use and exports to 2032.
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