Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is down 3 cents and near 14.33. SMF is near 406.5. BOF is near 71.32. CH
is unch and near 6.63. WH is down 2 cents and near 8.16. KWH is down 2 cents and near 9.20.
MWH is down 1 cent and near 9.52. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is hgher.
On Monday, Managed funds sold 2,000 Chicago wheat and 6,000 corn and bought 4,000
soybeans, 1,000 soymeal and 1,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 63,000
wheat, long 172,000 corn, 86,000 soybeans, 77,000 soymeal and 100,000 soyoil.
Soybean futures remain rangebound. Concern that increase China covid cases could reduce
their commodity import demand offers resistance. Positive US crush margins and lack of farmer
selling offers support. Talk of US RR strike offers resistance. Season to date US soybean exports
are down 10 pct vs last year. Argentina is dry. Argentina farmers waiting for new soya peso
deal. Brazil 2023 crop is 80 pct planed, Matif rapeseed futures are near 8 week low. Canada est
their 2023 canola crop at 19.1 mmt vs 13.8 ly. Dalian soybean, soyoil and rapeoil futures are
lower. Soymeal and palmoil are higher.
Trade continues to wait for official word from Russia that Ukraine export deal that expired Nov
19 will be extended. Some feel Ukraine could export 21.0-23.0 mmt of corn vs USDA 15.5. CH
could see increase resistance near 6.75 due to slow exports. Support near 6.55 due to slow
farmer selling. Possible US RR strike could be negative especially basis. Season to date US corn
exports are down 30 pct from last year. Ukraine corn harvest is near 50 pct done with farmer
opting to leave rest in the field. EU corn futures lower on increase farmer selling and end user
lower due to lower margins and increase in bird flu culling.
Dry US plains weather should support WH near 8.00 and low demand for US exports will limit
upside near 8.50. Season to date US wheat exports are down 2 pct vs ly. EU wheat is moving
into a west Florida mill. Landed EU wheat is $80 lower than US HRW price. US 2023 winter
wheat crop is still rated 32 pct G/E vs 44 ly. US wheat futures still trending lower looking for
new export demand. A US RR strike could weigh on basis. Lower Russia wheat export prices still
offers resistance ot US wheat futures.
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