Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is near $69. Gold is higher. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility. Crude supported by US pressure on Iran and Venezuelan exports and declining US inventories. Resistance found on US tariff on car and truck imports. US could test debt ceiling either in August or September.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.04. SK support is 10.00. Futures struggling with slower demand for US soybean exports vs lower US 2025 acres. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower and testing last month low. Palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. US soybean export sales est at 300-900 mt vs 352 last week. US soybean exports are near 39.9 mmt vs 36.5 ly. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. Trade could see US 2025 acres near 83.8 vs 87.0 ly. March 1 tocks 1,905 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. There is no clarity concerning US and China trade talks especially tax on China flag vessel into US ports.
CORN
CK is near 4.52. Dalian corn futures were lower and testing Feb lows. Brazil corn futures are at 1 month low. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.4 mil corn acres vs 90.6 last year and summer weather is normal. Some estimates are now as high as 96.0. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,154 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 600-1,600 mt vs 1,496 last week. US corn exports are est near 32.2 mmt vs 24.4 ly. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 ly. US weekly ethanol production was down 4.7 pct from last week but stocks are up 4.8 pct vs last year.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.36. KWK is near 5.68. MWK is near 5.90. EU weather maps forecast Russia rains. US plains could see rains mid next week. 2025 all US wheat acres could be near 46.5 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,221 mil bu vs 1,089 ly. For first time since 2021, US HRW export price is a discount to Russia. Australia wheat futures at 2 month low. Matif futures near 4 month low. Global wheat fob price this week down $6 per tonne to $247. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 0-550 mt vs -248 last week, new crop 100-300 mt vs 491 last week.
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