Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Jan 14.25
January 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA day. US export sales day. Grains are mixed. US jobs data day. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is unch. Crude is up near $75. China data continue to suggest a slow economy.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.04. SMH is below 298. BOH is back above 44. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were higher. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but showers are forecast after day 11. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,231 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop is est near 4,453 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 457 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. One group estimates Brazil soybean crop near 175.0 mmt and Argentina 49.5. Some est Biden to announce blend credits today. Trump tariffs could slow used China cooking oil and Canada RSO imports for renewable fuel use but also China buying US soybeans. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 400-1,300 mt vs 484 last week.
CORN
CH is near 4.57. CH resistance is near 4.60. Argentina 11-14 day forecast has showers. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,147 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. 2024 corn crop should be near USDA 15,095. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,675 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 1,738. One group estimates Brazil corn crop near 128.0 mmt and Argentina 47.0. USDA could drop their est of China corn imports of 14.0 mmt. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 700-1,400 mt vs 777 last week.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.35. KWH is near 5.52. MWH is near 5.85. Some feel USDA est of Egypt imports of 12.5 mmt, Turkey 6.5 mmt, EU 11.5 mmt, Brazil 6.5 mmt and China 11.0 could be too high. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,565 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should be 799 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 795. 2025 Winter wheat seedings are est at 33.3 mil acres vs 33.4 ly. HRW 23.7 vs 23.7 ly. SRW 6.1 vs 6.0 ly. White winter 3.5 vs 3.5 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 150-500 mt vs 140 last week.
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