Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. USDA report day. Grains are higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 12.76. SMZ is near 343.5. BOZ is near 56.36 CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.07. WZ is up 2 cents and near 6.94. KWZ is up 2 cents and near 6.85. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 8.71. Some new positive news on US gulf logistics may be offering support into USDA Sep report.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Equities and grains may be higher after Biden and XI talk.
Dalian corn, soybeans, soymeal, are higher. Palmoil, soyoil and rapeseed oil are lower. Matif wheat futures traded lower on concerns over steep selloff in US futures.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields. Brazil dry for corn planting. Argentina fob corn prices higher slowing new export sales.
FSA released their 2021 crop enrollment acres early. All higher than August. Could suggest higher acres. Saudi Arabia and Algeria lowered import specs. USDA may not lower EU/Russia exports.
Average trade guess for US corn yield is 175.8 vs USDA 174.6. Crop 14,942 vs USDA 14,750. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 50.5 vs USDA 50.0 Crop 4,377 vs USDA 4,339. 13 of 17 years USDA Sep corn yield has been above trade. Soybeans 10 of last 12. Last time USDA Sep corn yield was below trade was 2015, soybeans 2012.
Trade est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,169 vs USDA 1,117. 21/22 carryout 1,382 vs 1,242. Trade est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 166 vs USDA 160. 21/22 carryout 190 vs 155.
USDA est China 20/21 soybean imports near 97 mmt. Oct-Aug pace 93. Imports should be increased.
Trade est World 21/22 corn stocks at 286 mt vs 284, soybean 97 vs 96, wheat 279 vs 279. Trade est US weekly corn sales est at 600-1,200 my. Soybeans 1,000-1,600 and wheat 200-450 Conab est Brazil corn crop near 85.7 mmt vs USDA 87, soybeans 135.9 vs USDA 137.
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