Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are mixed. Crude is unch and near $59. US Dollar is sharply lower. Gold is sharply higher. Copper is higher on talk of a China stimulus. Coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. China retaliated on higher US tariffs by increasing tariff in US goods to 125 pct. Trump team are racing to strike ad hoc deals with more than 70 countries.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.39 on lower US Dollar. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Soymeal was lower. USDA dropped US soybean carryout 5 mil bu due to higher crush. US soybean export commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Some feel final exports could be higher and could drop carryout even more. Canada canola exports are 7.2 mmt vs 4.1 ly. USDA left SA soybean crops unch. USDA increased World soybean stocks 1 mmt to 122.47. USDA raised US soyoil production, lower domestic use but raised exports which lowered end stocks. USDA raised ave soyoil price from 43 cents to 45. USDA dropped ave soymeal price from 310 to 300.
CORN
CN is near 4.91 and 6 week high. Solid exports and lack of new selling rallied CN-CZ spread to +36. EU will delay imposing a 25 pct tariff on US corn. USDA dopped US corn carryout more than expected due to higher exports. US export commit is up 25 pct vs ly and USDA revised up 11. Some feel final exports could even be higher which drop carryout to closer to 1,400. USDA dropped World corn end stocks 1.3 mmr from March and lowest in 10 years and a 27 mmt drop yoy. Matif corn lower on higher Euro.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.63. KWN is near 5.80. MWN is near 6.22. WN resistance is near 5.73. Wheat is finding support from lower US Dollar. US south plains remains dry with temps warming. USDA raised US wheat carryout mostly HRW and HRS. USDA lowered World wheat imports 4 mmt and down 20 mmt yoy and largest decline from previous year in 40 years. USDA raised exporters end stocks. Russia exports were lowered to 44 mmt and could still be high and raised Russia end stocks 1 mmt. They also raised EU end stocks. US export commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 16.
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