Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly higher. SX is up 11 cents and near 13.76. SMZ is near 401.5. BOZ is near 62.39. CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.87. WZ is up 5 cents and near 6.04. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.29. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.66. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed but near $87. Gold, silver, copper, coffee and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are higher. Midweek temps should turn cool with rains possible the weekend. USDA dropped US soybean crop ratings to 53 pct G/E from 58. C/N Brazil is dry. Heavy rains continues to S Brazil. N Argentina wet, S Argentina is dry. New Argentina soya peso plan has trigged some increase in farmer selling. US remains best source for meal. Competing oilseeds are cheaper than US soybeans. US soyoil has competition from Black Sea sunoil, South America soyoil and SE Asia palmoil. US soybean exports are 52.2 mmt or down 8 pct vs ly.
Corn futures are slightly higher. Russia does not appear to be willing to restart the Ukraine grain corridor deal. US corn harvest will start soon which limits fund buying. USDA dropped US crop ratings from 56 G/E to 53. US corn exports are 37.2 mmt or down 32 pct vs ly. Some feel CZ may be settling into a 4.75-5.00 range. They could also see a post harvest rally. Brazil corn exports are supported by low US Miss river logistics and slow Ukraine exports.
Wheat futures are higher. US south plains could see rains. Matif wheat futures are lower due to record Russia monthly wheat exports vs US and EU down 10-15 pct. US wheat exports are near 4.3 mmt or down 24 pct vs ly. Some feel WZ is consolidating near 6.00, KWZ 7.20 and MWZ near 7.60. USDA est spring wheat harvest is near 74 pct and US winter wheat planting is 1 pct vs 3 average.
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